NBA games

WSH @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
132–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH24413829132
CHA29173832116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home CHA
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 31 33 9 4
Danilo Gallinari 20 18 4 2
Delon Wright 26 18 3 3
Landry Shamet 17 15 1 2
Corey Kispert 23 12 3 3
Jordan Poole S 20 11 2 1
Deni Avdija S 28 9 3 5
Bilal Coulibaly 30 6 2 1
Daniel Gafford S 13 5 5 1
Ryan Rollins 3 3 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 36 34 4 7
Gordon Hayward S 32 18 7 4
P.J. Washington S 36 14 7 1
Mark Williams S 18 14 7 0
Brandon Miller S 30 13 5 2
Theo Maledon 18 9 1 0
Nick Richards 16 7 6 0
Nick Smith Jr. 4 5 1 0
Bryce McGowens 15 2 3 1
Ish Smith 10 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mark Williams · Layup (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Mark Williams makes layup (Gordon Hayward assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Gordon Hayward CHA
12%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
12%
3 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
4 P.J. Washington CHA
11%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
6 Mark Williams CHA
10%
7 Daniel Gafford WSH
9%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
9 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
10 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
31%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.2 6.3 3.8
2 Jordan Poole WSH 20.5 3.2 4.1
3 Gordon Hayward CHA 19.2 5.6 5.2
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 19.2 5.1 8.0
5 P.J. Washington CHA 16.9 5.4 2.3
6 Deni Avdija WSH 13.7 5.9 3.0
7 Mark Williams CHA 13.1 8.7 1.7
8 Brandon Miller CHA 12.9 5.2 2.2
9 Tyus Jones WSH 11.5 3.2 5.2
10 Corey Kispert WSH 9.2 2.4 1.6
11 Daniel Gafford WSH 8.9 6.7 1.1
12 Nick Richards CHA 8.7 7.2 1.0
13 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 8.0 2.9 1.1
14 Johnny Davis WSH 8.0 3.2 1.1
15 Danilo Gallinari WSH 7.1 2.7 1.2
16 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 7.1 3.9 1.6
17 JT Thor CHA 6.6 4.1 1.2
18 Theo Maledon CHA 6.3 2.3 2.0
19 Delon Wright WSH 5.5 2.5 3.8
20 Mike Muscala WSH 5.4 2.9 0.9
21 Ryan Rollins WSH 5.2 2.4 1.8
22 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.4 1.7 0.8
23 Anthony Gill WSH 4.1 2.2 1.0
24 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.9 2.2 0.8
25 Amari Bailey CHA 1.9 0.6 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.