NBA games

NO @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
116–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO27442124116
DEN25344035134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home DEN
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Hawkins S 38 31 7 3
Brandon Ingram S 36 22 2 5
Zion Williamson S 37 20 10 9
Matt Ryan 25 17 0 1
Dyson Daniels 21 9 2 1
Jonas Valanciunas S 24 6 11 2
Larry Nance Jr. 15 5 3 1
Herbert Jones S 31 4 2 2
Kira Lewis Jr. 9 2 0 0
Cody Zeller 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 36 35 14 12
Michael Porter Jr. S 29 22 9 3
Julian Strawther 19 21 2 1
Aaron Gordon S 36 15 12 6
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 15 1 7
Reggie Jackson S 24 7 1 4
Collin Gillespie 17 6 1 1
Christian Braun 18 6 0 1
Peyton Watson 19 4 3 1
Jalen Pickett 1 3 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jonas Valanciunas · Layup (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Jonas Valanciunas makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
17%
2 Zion Williamson NO
16%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
14%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
12%
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
10%
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO
10%
7 Herbert Jones NO
10%
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
10%
9 Jordan Hawkins NO
0%
10 Larry Nance Jr. NO
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
39%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 26.0 12.4 7.7
2 Zion Williamson NO 19.6 5.7 4.0
3 Brandon Ingram NO 18.2 6.2 3.8
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.3 7.6 2.1
5 Aaron Gordon DEN 14.1 5.9 3.6
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 10.6 7.7 1.5
7 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.4 2.8 1.8
8 Herbert Jones NO 9.9 4.1 1.5
9 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.4 2.3 2.6
10 Jordan Hawkins NO 9.2 2.9 1.5
11 Christian Braun DEN 9.0 5.9 2.3
12 Julian Strawther DEN 8.3 1.8 1.0
13 Dyson Daniels NO 8.0 4.2 2.4
14 Peyton Watson DEN 6.4 3.0 1.3
15 Matt Ryan NO 6.2 2.3 1.6
16 Hunter Tyson DEN 6.2 3.0 1.2
17 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 5.3 1.6 1.6
18 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.3 3.4 0.9
19 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.2 4.3 0.9
20 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.8 3.0 2.7
21 Collin Gillespie DEN 4.4 1.3 1.4
22 Dereon Seabron NO 4.1 1.6 1.0
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.9 1.3 1.1
24 Justin Holiday DEN 3.8 1.1 0.8
25 Braxton Key DEN 3.5 2.1 1.2
26 E.J. Liddell NO 3.3 2.2 0.7
27 Cody Zeller NO 1.6 1.1 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.