NBA games

ATL @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
117–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL28222740117
OKC29293830126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home OKC
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 33 29 4 6
Trae Young S 36 22 4 11
Bogdan Bogdanovic 27 17 2 3
Saddiq Bey 26 15 8 2
Jalen Johnson S 34 13 12 5
De'Andre Hunter S 33 8 2 0
Onyeka Okongwu 25 7 14 0
Clint Capela S 21 6 12 0
Garrison Mathews 4 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 37 30 8 6
Jalen Williams S 36 21 3 2
Luguentz Dort S 32 19 9 3
Chet Holmgren S 34 16 12 3
Isaiah Joe 20 12 3 3
Josh Giddey S 27 8 7 4
Jaylin Williams 13 6 2 2
Cason Wallace 24 6 2 4
Aaron Wiggins 7 5 1 0
Ousmane Dieng 10 3 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 4-foot hook shot (Luguentz Dort assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
2 Trae Young ATL
10%
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
10%
4 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
5 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL
9%
7 Clint Capela ATL
9%
8 Chet Holmgren OKC
9%
9 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
10 Jalen Johnson ATL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
21%
Jumper
28%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 23.4 6.2 6.3
2 Trae Young ATL 22.3 3.0 9.3
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 18.0 4.8 5.2
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.8 6.5 2.5
5 Jalen Williams OKC 17.7 4.3 4.5
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.2 5.1 1.9
7 Josh Giddey OKC 14.8 5.9 5.0
8 Jalen Johnson ATL 14.1 6.3 3.1
9 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.2 5.9 1.5
10 Luguentz Dort OKC 12.8 3.5 1.4
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.2 5.9 1.8
12 Clint Capela ATL 10.0 8.9 0.9
13 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 9.9 3.3 3.3
14 Jaylin Williams OKC 9.1 5.7 2.3
15 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.1 1.9 1.3
16 Cason Wallace OKC 7.9 2.6 1.6
17 Ousmane Dieng OKC 6.0 2.2 1.8
18 Davis Bertans OKC 5.4 0.8 0.5
19 Vasilije Micic OKC 5.4 1.4 4.5
20 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.2 2.1 0.7
21 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.7 1.6 0.7
22 AJ Griffin ATL 4.7 1.4 0.7
23 Trent Forrest ATL 4.1 1.3 1.9
24 Tre Mann OKC 3.8 1.7 1.0
25 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.7 2.8 0.9
26 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.6 1.1 0.5
27 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.0 1.5 0.6
28 Patty Mills ATL 1.6 0.6 0.6
29 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.6 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.