NBA games

BOS @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
109–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
BOS262919278109
MIN2923272213114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home MIN
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 43 32 5 2
Jaylen Brown S 39 26 7 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 36 20 5 1
Jrue Holiday S 42 12 11 6
Sam Hauser 25 11 4 0
Luke Kornet 16 5 1 0
Al Horford S 36 3 5 4
Svi Mykhailiuk 4 0 0 0
Lamar Stevens 4 0 1 0
Payton Pritchard 20 0 6 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 38 38 9 7
Jaden McDaniels S 45 20 2 1
Rudy Gobert S 41 14 12 1
Naz Reid 25 14 4 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 20 8 1 3
Mike Conley S 36 8 2 3
Karl-Anthony Towns S 28 7 10 3
Kyle Anderson 25 3 5 6
Jordan McLaughlin 4 2 0 0
Shake Milton 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 1-foot dunk (Al Horford assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
22%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
11%
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
10%
4 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
5 Rudy Gobert MIN
9%
6 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
7 Mike Conley MIN
8%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
7%
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN
7%
10 Al Horford BOS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
20%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.8 8.7 4.5
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.8 6.0 4.0
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.4 5.1 3.2
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 18.2 7.1 2.7
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 17.5 6.9 1.5
6 Naz Reid MIN 14.5 4.5 1.6
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.6 5.8 4.3
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.0 9.5 1.1
9 Mike Conley MIN 9.6 2.6 3.5
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 9.3 2.2 4.0
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 8.4 4.0 1.5
12 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.4 3.2 4.1
13 Shake Milton MIN 6.6 2.2 2.3
14 Sam Hauser BOS 6.4 3.2 1.1
15 Al Horford BOS 6.3 5.1 1.7
16 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 6.0 1.8 0.7
17 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 5.5 2.6 1.6
18 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 5.1 2.5 0.8
19 Dalano Banton BOS 4.8 1.9 0.8
20 Josh Minott MIN 4.6 1.9 1.3
21 Lamar Stevens BOS 4.5 2.8 0.5
22 Daishen Nix MIN 4.4 1.1 1.8
23 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.0 3.1 0.7
24 Luke Kornet BOS 3.7 2.5 1.0
25 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.7 1.1 1.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.