NBA games

SAC @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
97–122
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC2220183797
HOU32353025122

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home HOU
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keon Ellis 14 15 2 1
Kevin Huerter S 25 13 3 2
Keegan Murray S 28 12 5 1
JaVale McGee 10 10 3 0
Colby Jones 13 10 5 1
Domantas Sabonis S 30 8 8 5
Malik Monk 15 5 1 2
Chris Duarte 15 5 1 2
Davion Mitchell S 27 5 1 2
Jordan Ford 8 5 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 26 23 2 2
Alperen Sengun S 26 17 8 12
Aaron Holiday 21 13 3 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 22 13 4 0
Fred VanVleet S 27 11 4 5
Dillon Brooks S 28 9 6 1
Jae'Sean Tate 21 8 4 1
Cam Whitmore 12 7 1 1
Nate Hinton 7 6 0 0
Jeff Green 5 6 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Keegan Murray · Layup (2 pts) · 10:46 Q1
"Keegan Murray makes 3-foot two point shot (Kevin Huerter assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
15%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
12%
3 Jalen Green HOU
12%
4 Keegan Murray SAC
11%
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
11%
6 Fred VanVleet HOU
8%
7 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
9 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
10 Davion Mitchell SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
29%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC 17.9 11.7 6.0
2 Jalen Green HOU 17.6 4.6 2.8
3 Fred VanVleet HOU 17.5 3.7 6.5
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 16.2 8.3 4.9
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.9 7.5 2.1
6 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.7 3.6 2.4
7 Keegan Murray SAC 12.8 5.8 1.9
8 Malik Monk SAC 12.1 2.7 4.4
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.4 2.9 1.5
10 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.5 2.5 0.9
11 JaVale McGee SAC 7.4 3.9 0.9
12 Kevin Huerter SAC 6.8 3.6 1.8
13 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.8 2.1 3.0
14 Colby Jones SAC 6.0 1.9 1.2
15 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.0 3.7 1.3
16 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.8 3.3 0.7
17 Chris Duarte SAC 5.7 1.6 1.1
18 Jeff Green HOU 5.3 2.7 1.2
19 Jock Landale HOU 5.2 2.9 1.5
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.2 2.2 1.7
21 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 3.4 1.9 0.9
22 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.3 2.2 0.6
23 Keon Ellis SAC 3.3 1.9 0.6
24 Jordan Ford SAC 3.2 1.3 0.5
25 Alex Len SAC 3.1 2.5 0.9
26 Filip Petrusev SAC 2.8 2.1 0.8
27 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.6 1.8 0.6
28 Nate Hinton HOU 2.6 2.0 0.6
29 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 1.4 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.