NBA games

UTAH @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
113–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH32202635113
CHI37293232130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home CHI
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 34 29 5 3
Walker Kessler S 31 15 15 0
Collin Sexton 17 14 3 2
John Collins S 29 14 6 0
Kelly Olynyk 23 13 7 8
Jordan Clarkson S 29 7 1 6
Keyonte George 21 5 2 4
Talen Horton-Tucker S 23 5 6 4
Ochai Agbaji 11 3 1 1
Kris Dunn 11 3 5 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 31 24 2 3
DeMar DeRozan S 30 21 5 4
Coby White S 29 18 3 7
Andre Drummond 14 12 7 1
Jevon Carter 17 12 0 1
Alex Caruso 20 10 1 3
Nikola Vucevic S 31 10 8 4
Patrick Williams 25 10 3 0
Ayo Dosunmu 16 8 1 0
Torrey Craig S 20 3 3 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Talen Horton-Tucker · Layup (2 pts) · 11:26 Q1
"Talen Horton-Tucker makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
15%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
14%
3 Zach LaVine CHI
11%
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
9%
5 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH
9%
6 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
7 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
9%
8 Coby White CHI
9%
9 John Collins UTAH
8%
10 Torrey Craig CHI
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
22%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 22.0 4.4 3.1
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 21.7 8.6 1.9
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI 21.6 3.5 4.4
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.8 10.6 2.8
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 14.6 4.1 4.9
6 Coby White CHI 14.1 3.3 4.0
7 John Collins UTAH 13.2 7.0 1.5
8 Collin Sexton UTAH 13.1 2.8 3.1
9 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 11.9 3.5 5.6
10 Patrick Williams CHI 9.1 3.5 1.8
11 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.9 7.1 1.0
12 Keyonte George UTAH 8.9 2.4 3.0
13 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 6.9 3.9 3.4
14 Alex Caruso CHI 6.8 3.3 2.2
15 Jevon Carter CHI 6.7 1.6 1.5
16 Torrey Craig CHI 6.6 4.2 1.6
17 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 6.5 1.9 1.5
18 Andre Drummond CHI 5.9 6.5 1.1
19 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 5.4 2.3 1.1
20 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 5.1 2.1 1.0
21 Kris Dunn UTAH 4.3 1.6 1.9
22 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.7 1.8 0.7
23 Terry Taylor CHI 3.6 2.8 1.0
24 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.5 3.1 0.6
25 Julian Phillips CHI 3.4 1.5 0.5
26 Dalen Terry CHI 3.2 1.9 1.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.