NBA games

LAC @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
97–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC2125302197
NY19233435111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 9 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home NY
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 32 18 5 3
James Harden S 31 17 3 6
Russell Westbrook S 31 17 4 4
Norman Powell 22 14 1 0
Paul George S 34 10 7 3
Ivica Zubac S 30 8 7 0
Bones Hyland 22 5 1 4
Moussa Diabate 6 4 0 0
Mason Plumlee 11 2 2 1
P.J. Tucker 11 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Julius Randle S 37 27 10 3
RJ Barrett S 31 26 6 4
Mitchell Robinson S 35 13 15 0
Donte DiVincenzo 16 12 6 1
Josh Hart 32 10 3 7
Jalen Brunson S 35 7 3 6
Immanuel Quickley 20 7 1 5
Isaiah Hartenstein 13 6 3 2
Quentin Grimes S 21 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
RJ Barrett · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:09 Q1
"RJ Barrett makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Brunson NY
26%
2 RJ Barrett NY
10%
3 Paul George LAC
8%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
8%
5 Mitchell Robinson NY
8%
6 Bones Hyland LAC
8%
7 Kawhi Leonard LAC
8%
8 Russell Westbrook LAC
7%
9 Julius Randle NY
6%
10 Josh Hart NY
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
27%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paul George LAC 22.6 4.7 3.8
2 Jalen Brunson NY 21.5 4.0 4.3
3 RJ Barrett NY 19.6 3.7 2.9
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 18.8 4.5 3.6
5 Immanuel Quickley NY 16.6 3.8 3.0
6 Bones Hyland LAC 15.5 3.4 3.4
7 Julius Randle NY 14.8 9.1 4.0
8 Russell Westbrook LAC 13.7 7.0 5.9
9 Norman Powell LAC 11.4 2.5 1.6
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 8.2 6.7 0.6
11 Quentin Grimes NY 8.2 2.1 1.5
12 Mitchell Robinson NY 7.9 9.6 0.8
13 Donte DiVincenzo NY 7.6 2.9 1.9
14 Evan Fournier NY 7.1 2.0 0.7
15 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 6.8 4.6 1.5
16 Josh Hart NY 6.8 5.3 2.0
17 Miles McBride NY 5.2 1.1 1.9
18 Mason Plumlee LAC 4.8 5.0 1.0
19 Kobe Brown LAC 3.9 2.2 0.6
20 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.1 3.6 0.6
21 Amir Coffey LAC 3.1 1.0 0.8
22 Moussa Diabate LAC 2.8 3.1 0.4
23 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.6 0.7 0.5
24 Jericho Sims NY 2.0 3.1 0.7
25 Dylan Windler NY 1.8 0.7 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.