NBA games

LAL @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
107–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL33262028107
MIA33292818108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home MIA
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 37 30 4 3
Austin Reaves S 40 23 10 9
D'Angelo Russell S 29 13 4 6
Christian Wood 30 12 6 1
Anthony Davis S 25 9 6 4
Taurean Prince S 34 9 3 2
Cam Reddish 29 7 4 2
Max Christie 15 4 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 37 28 4 6
Tyler Herro S 34 22 5 5
Bam Adebayo S 38 22 19 10
Duncan Robinson 26 12 3 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 18 9 2 1
Kyle Lowry S 33 5 4 5
Haywood Highsmith S 22 5 1 0
Josh Richardson 21 3 2 0
Thomas Bryant 10 2 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:57 Q1
"Jimmy Butler makes 26-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jimmy Butler III MIA
14%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
12%
3 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
4 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
5 LeBron James LAL
9%
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL
9%
7 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
8 Cam Reddish LAL
7%
9 Taurean Prince LAL
6%
10 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
17%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
27%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 24.2 5.0 5.3
2 LeBron James LAL 23.2 7.5 6.2
3 Anthony Davis LAL 22.0 10.4 3.0
4 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.4 7.6 3.1
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA 19.5 7.5 3.5
6 D'Angelo Russell LAL 18.0 3.6 6.1
7 Austin Reaves LAL 15.1 4.0 3.4
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 11.1 2.6 2.3
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.0 2.3 1.6
10 Christian Wood LAL 8.7 5.9 1.3
11 Taurean Prince LAL 8.3 2.1 1.0
12 Kyle Lowry MIA 7.9 3.1 4.1
13 Max Christie LAL 7.3 2.8 1.2
14 Thomas Bryant MIA 7.1 4.0 1.1
15 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.4 3.5 1.8
16 Josh Richardson MIA 6.3 2.5 2.3
17 Dru Smith MIA 5.7 1.6 3.7
18 Kevin Love MIA 5.5 5.7 1.4
19 Orlando Robinson MIA 5.5 3.7 1.5
20 Cam Reddish LAL 5.4 2.7 1.2
21 Colin Castleton LAL 4.8 4.7 0.7
22 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 4.4 2.7 3.4
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 4.2 1.2 1.2
24 Alex Fudge LAL 2.8 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.