NBA games

MIL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
129–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL29343333129
BKN32352731125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home BKN
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 35 36 12 3
Damian Lillard S 34 21 6 7
Khris Middleton S 21 15 3 4
Jae Crowder 30 15 5 0
Cameron Payne 16 11 1 3
Bobby Portis 26 11 6 2
Pat Connaughton 19 10 1 3
Brook Lopez S 27 4 7 2
Malik Beasley S 14 3 6 0
MarJon Beauchamp 16 3 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 41 45 4 3
Mikal Bridges S 39 31 5 4
Lonnie Walker IV 23 19 4 2
Royce O'Neale 25 12 9 3
Dorian Finney-Smith S 37 7 6 2
Day'Ron Sharpe 8 4 0 0
Spencer Dinwiddie S 24 3 3 3
Ben Simmons S 33 2 15 4
Dennis Smith Jr. 11 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Giannis Antetokounmpo · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Giannis Antetokounmpo makes dunk (Khris Middleton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
13%
2 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
3 Mikal Bridges BKN
11%
4 Cam Thomas BKN
9%
5 Ben Simmons BKN
9%
6 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
7 Khris Middleton MIL
8%
8 Royce O'Neale BKN
7%
9 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
7%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
19%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
25%
Layup
36%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 24.8 9.3 3.4
2 Cam Thomas BKN 22.3 4.0 2.6
3 Damian Lillard MIL 21.4 4.2 4.4
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 19.5 5.0 3.8
5 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 14.8 3.1 2.2
6 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 12.8 2.8 5.2
7 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 11.6 4.0 1.8
8 Malik Beasley MIL 10.4 2.9 2.0
9 Brook Lopez MIL 9.9 4.2 1.1
10 Ben Simmons BKN 9.5 8.4 6.7
11 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.5 5.4 3.0
12 Jae Crowder MIL 9.4 4.2 2.0
13 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 8.7 3.1 1.5
14 Trendon Watford BKN 8.3 3.7 1.9
15 Bobby Portis MIL 8.2 5.7 1.5
16 Khris Middleton MIL 7.7 3.2 3.1
17 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.6 3.7 1.8
18 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.6 6.4 0.8
19 Armoni Brooks BKN 5.4 1.6 0.9
20 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 5.0 1.9 1.2
21 Cameron Payne MIL 4.7 1.1 1.7
22 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 4.2 1.9 0.4
23 Chris Livingston MIL 4.1 1.0 0.4
24 AJ Green MIL 3.8 1.1 0.7
25 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.8 3.0 1.3
26 Robin Lopez MIL 3.2 1.9 0.9
27 Jalen Wilson BKN 2.8 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.