NBA games

WSH @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
128–146
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH24344030128
PHI33424526146

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (PHI) / 9 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home PHI
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 30 28 6 4
Jordan Poole S 31 23 1 6
Deni Avdija S 28 16 5 6
Tyus Jones S 33 12 1 6
Daniel Gafford S 30 12 7 3
Bilal Coulibaly 19 10 3 0
Ryan Rollins 10 6 5 3
Anthony Gill 8 5 1 0
Delon Wright 5 4 0 0
Eugene Omoruyi 11 4 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 31 48 11 6
Tyrese Maxey S 32 22 1 11
Tobias Harris S 31 18 5 5
De'Anthony Melton S 26 14 3 4
Nicolas Batum 17 11 2 0
Robert Covington 4 7 0 0
Patrick Beverley 12 6 4 5
Paul Reed 14 6 6 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 27 3 5 1
Marcus Morris Sr. 6 3 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jordan Poole · Layup (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Jordan Poole makes two point shot (Tyus Jones assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
12%
2 Joel Embiid PHI
11%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
4 Tobias Harris PHI
11%
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
10%
6 Daniel Gafford WSH
9%
7 Tyrese Maxey PHI
9%
8 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
9 De'Anthony Melton PHI
8%
10 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
22%
Layup
57%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 30.3 11.2 5.9
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.6 4.5 6.8
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH 22.9 6.2 3.4
4 Tobias Harris PHI 19.3 6.9 3.1
5 Jordan Poole WSH 18.7 3.3 3.5
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 18.1 4.6 2.0
7 De'Anthony Melton PHI 13.0 4.3 5.0
8 Deni Avdija WSH 11.8 6.0 2.4
9 Tyus Jones WSH 10.7 3.1 4.7
10 Corey Kispert WSH 8.1 2.2 1.3
11 Johnny Davis WSH 7.6 3.0 1.0
12 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 7.4 2.6 0.9
13 Danilo Gallinari WSH 6.9 2.6 1.2
14 Daniel Gafford WSH 6.8 6.3 0.7
15 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 6.7 1.7 1.1
16 Paul Reed PHI 6.5 5.9 1.4
17 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 6.4 3.6 1.6
18 Jaden Springer PHI 5.9 3.1 1.3
19 Patrick Beverley PHI 5.6 3.0 1.6
20 KJ Martin PHI 5.3 2.5 1.0
21 Delon Wright WSH 5.1 2.5 4.0
22 Robert Covington PHI 5.1 2.8 1.1
23 Mike Muscala WSH 4.8 2.8 0.9
24 Ryan Rollins WSH 4.5 1.8 1.4
25 Nicolas Batum PHI 3.6 2.2 0.8
26 Anthony Gill WSH 3.4 1.6 1.1
27 Mo Bamba PHI 2.7 2.2 0.6
28 Danuel House Jr. PHI 2.4 2.2 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.