NBA games

DAL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
117–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL27263331117
ORL33331719102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home ORL
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 35 29 3 6
Kyrie Irving S 37 21 6 10
Tim Hardaway Jr. 31 21 6 0
Grant Williams S 33 13 2 0
Dereck Lively II S 16 10 5 0
Dwight Powell 28 7 2 2
Josh Green 20 6 2 1
Derrick Jones Jr. S 28 5 4 1
Jaden Hardy 11 5 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 37 22 5 6
Cole Anthony 30 19 2 5
Moritz Wagner 26 19 5 0
Franz Wagner S 33 12 5 4
Jalen Suggs S 24 10 4 7
Anthony Black S 33 8 5 2
Goga Bitadze S 22 7 6 0
Caleb Houstan 14 3 1 0
Joe Ingles 21 2 5 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Grant Williams · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Grant Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
13%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
4 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
5 Luka Doncic DAL
9%
6 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
7 Anthony Black ORL
9%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
8%
10 Grant Williams DAL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
14%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
20%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 27.9 8.4 7.0
2 Franz Wagner ORL 19.2 5.0 3.7
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 18.3 4.4 6.4
4 Paolo Banchero ORL 17.3 6.4 5.2
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 14.7 3.7 1.7
6 Cole Anthony ORL 13.8 4.4 3.4
7 Grant Williams DAL 11.1 4.5 1.8
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 10.0 4.6 2.4
9 Josh Green DAL 9.9 3.1 1.8
10 Jaden Hardy DAL 9.5 2.6 1.7
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.4 3.9 1.2
12 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.2 7.3 1.1
13 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 7.2 2.3 0.8
14 Dwight Powell DAL 5.4 2.9 0.7
15 Anthony Black ORL 5.4 2.7 1.4
16 Jett Howard ORL 5.4 1.4 0.8
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.0 3.8 1.2
18 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.9 1.9 0.8
19 Joe Ingles ORL 4.7 2.1 1.8
20 Admiral Schofield ORL 4.5 3.3 1.3
21 Dante Exum DAL 4.2 2.2 1.9
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.7 2.1 0.5
23 Seth Curry DAL 3.3 1.5 0.7
24 Chuma Okeke ORL 3.0 2.0 1.0
25 Richaun Holmes DAL 1.0 2.1 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.