NBA games

SA @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
111–152
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA28332624111
IND44423333152

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home IND
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Doug McDermott 20 17 1 4
Keldon Johnson S 23 16 3 3
Zach Collins S 20 14 5 2
Victor Wembanyama S 21 13 10 0
Charles Bassey 17 10 3 1
Malaki Branham S 28 8 0 2
Jeremy Sochan S 21 6 3 1
Cedi Osman 19 6 3 2
Sandro Mamukelashvili 9 5 4 1
Dominick Barlow 8 4 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 27 23 2 8
Obi Toppin S 27 19 2 1
Buddy Hield 21 19 2 2
Myles Turner S 21 15 11 2
Aaron Nesmith 16 15 2 2
Bennedict Mathurin S 22 10 3 2
Andrew Nembhard 16 9 2 8
Jalen Smith 12 9 7 2
Bruce Brown S 24 7 5 4
Ben Sheppard 12 7 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tyrese Haliburton · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"Tyrese Haliburton makes 10-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND
30%
2 Myles Turner IND
10%
3 Zach Collins SA
9%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
9%
5 Keldon Johnson SA
8%
6 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
7 Obi Toppin IND
7%
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND
7%
9 Bruce Brown IND
6%
10 Malaki Branham SA
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
21%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 24.7 4.0 10.9
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 21.1 7.6 2.4
3 Zach Collins SA 17.1 6.8 4.8
4 Keldon Johnson SA 16.6 5.7 3.6
5 Myles Turner IND 14.9 7.7 1.8
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 12.1 3.6 2.7
7 Buddy Hield IND 11.2 3.9 3.8
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.1 5.8 4.6
9 Bruce Brown IND 10.9 3.6 2.3
10 Tre Jones SA 10.2 3.5 5.6
11 Andrew Nembhard IND 9.8 2.3 3.6
12 Aaron Nesmith IND 9.6 3.4 1.2
13 Cedi Osman SA 9.4 2.9 1.7
14 Jalen Smith IND 9.4 6.1 1.0
15 Obi Toppin IND 8.8 4.7 1.0
16 Malaki Branham SA 8.6 2.7 1.9
17 T.J. McConnell IND 8.0 2.6 4.2
18 Doug McDermott SA 6.0 1.7 1.0
19 Ben Sheppard IND 5.9 1.9 1.3
20 Jarace Walker IND 5.8 3.9 1.4
21 Julian Champagnie SA 4.7 3.0 0.8
22 Charles Bassey SA 4.6 3.9 1.1
23 Blake Wesley SA 4.5 1.5 2.2
24 Devonte' Graham SA 4.1 1.7 0.5
25 Jordan Nwora IND 3.9 1.1 0.8
26 Dominick Barlow SA 3.4 1.2 0.5
27 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.4 3.6 0.4
28 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.2 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.