NBA games

GS @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
120–109
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS31252737120
DET26223427109

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home DET
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 33 34 2 4
Klay Thompson S 28 17 1 3
Chris Paul 21 17 5 6
Dario Saric 21 12 6 1
Kevon Looney S 25 10 6 1
Jonathan Kuminga 19 10 1 0
Draymond Green S 28 6 9 8
Gary Payton II 24 6 6 0
Moses Moody 19 4 2 2
Andrew Wiggins S 22 4 6 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 40 21 4 5
Killian Hayes S 34 21 4 7
Isaiah Stewart S 39 17 11 4
Ausar Thompson S 38 16 7 2
Stanley Umude 16 15 3 0
Marvin Bagley III S 24 10 2 1
Marcus Sasser 33 7 3 4
Jared Rhoden 5 2 2 0
James Wiseman 11 0 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ausar Thompson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Ausar Thompson makes layup (Marvin Bagley III assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
2 Jalen Duren DET
11%
3 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
4 Draymond Green GS
10%
5 Killian Hayes DET
9%
6 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
7 Klay Thompson GS
9%
8 Isaiah Stewart DET
9%
9 Kevon Looney GS
9%
10 Stephen Curry GS
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
25%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 27.6 5.0 4.5
2 Cade Cunningham DET 22.6 4.0 7.1
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 16.9 4.3 1.9
4 Jalen Duren DET 13.4 9.8 2.3
5 Klay Thompson GS 13.3 4.0 2.1
6 Draymond Green GS 13.2 4.4 5.9
7 Ausar Thompson DET 13.0 9.4 3.4
8 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.8 6.6 1.8
9 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.3 3.5 1.5
10 Jaden Ivey DET 11.8 3.4 2.8
11 Killian Hayes DET 10.4 2.8 4.4
12 Chris Paul GS 9.7 3.6 6.4
13 Dario Saric GS 9.4 5.3 1.8
14 Marcus Sasser DET 8.9 2.8 2.9
15 Marvin Bagley III DET 8.5 5.4 1.2
16 Moses Moody GS 8.2 3.0 1.1
17 Brandin Podziemski GS 7.2 5.1 4.0
18 Kevon Looney GS 6.8 7.7 2.6
19 Gary Payton II GS 6.3 2.7 1.2
20 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.8 4.6 0.6
21 Malcolm Cazalon DET 5.4 1.4 1.3
22 Joe Harris DET 5.2 1.4 1.0
23 James Wiseman DET 5.1 3.8 0.7
24 Stanley Umude DET 4.4 1.8 0.8
25 Jared Rhoden DET 3.6 2.0 0.7
26 Cory Joseph GS 3.1 1.7 1.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.