NBA games

MEM @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
112–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM30331930112
POR32233114100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home POR
38% 62%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 34 30 8 5
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 37 27 7 2
Luke Kennard 32 15 5 2
Marcus Smart S 29 10 2 5
Bismack Biyombo S 26 8 11 4
Santi Aldama 20 7 5 3
Ziaire Williams S 28 6 7 1
Kenneth Lofton Jr. 10 5 2 3
David Roddy 13 4 2 0
Jacob Gilyard 11 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 38 27 3 3
Malcolm Brogdon S 39 18 7 11
Shaedon Sharpe S 41 18 8 3
Toumani Camara 24 8 6 2
Skylar Mays 16 7 1 2
Deandre Ayton S 35 6 11 0
Matisse Thybulle S 19 6 3 1
Jabari Walker 16 5 5 1
Robert Williams III 11 5 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Marcus Smart · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Marcus Smart makes pullup jump shot (Desmond Bane assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jerami Grant POR
12%
2 Marcus Smart MEM
12%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
5 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR
11%
7 Desmond Bane MEM
10%
8 David Roddy MEM
8%
9 Ziaire Williams MEM
7%
10 Matisse Thybulle POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
43%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 25.3 4.9 4.5
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.8 5.2 3.4
3 Jerami Grant POR 19.2 4.4 2.0
4 Malcolm Brogdon POR 19.2 4.9 5.1
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 18.5 7.1 2.6
6 Marcus Smart MEM 17.4 3.5 6.0
7 Ziaire Williams MEM 12.1 5.3 1.7
8 Deandre Ayton POR 12.0 11.7 1.9
9 Santi Aldama MEM 11.0 4.9 1.6
10 David Roddy MEM 10.5 4.4 1.7
11 Xavier Tillman MEM 9.4 6.9 1.9
12 Robert Williams III POR 7.6 7.3 1.3
13 Toumani Camara POR 6.9 3.9 1.5
14 Jabari Walker POR 6.7 4.8 1.0
15 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 5.9 2.4 1.3
16 Luke Kennard MEM 5.8 2.4 1.9
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.6 1.9 1.0
18 Skylar Mays POR 5.6 1.4 2.3
19 Jake LaRavia MEM 5.5 2.3 0.7
20 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 5.3 3.2 1.2
21 Jacob Gilyard MEM 4.7 2.0 4.2
22 Kris Murray POR 3.5 2.1 0.8
23 Moses Brown POR 3.2 3.2 0.3
24 Rayan Rupert POR 1.7 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.