NBA games

CHA @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
118–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA31312234118
DAL26243341124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (DAL) / 9 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home DAL
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 39 30 10 13
P.J. Washington S 34 20 4 1
Gordon Hayward S 34 20 4 8
Mark Williams S 27 19 10 1
Nick Richards 21 12 9 1
Theo Maledon 21 9 0 4
Brandon Miller S 36 7 1 1
Bryce McGowens 10 1 2 0
Ish Smith 3 0 0 0
JT Thor 15 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 36 23 12 9
Kyrie Irving S 34 18 3 10
Grant Williams S 31 18 4 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 32 16 2 1
Dereck Lively II S 32 15 14 1
Jaden Hardy 15 14 4 0
Dwight Powell 15 10 5 3
Josh Green 24 7 2 3
Dante Exum 3 3 1 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 17 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mark Williams · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Mark Williams makes 1-foot dunk (Gordon Hayward assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
14%
2 Gordon Hayward CHA
12%
3 LaMelo Ball CHA
12%
4 P.J. Washington CHA
11%
5 Mark Williams CHA
11%
6 Dereck Lively II DAL
11%
7 Luka Doncic DAL
11%
8 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
10%
9 Grant Williams DAL
8%
10 Brandon Miller CHA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
37%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 28.5 8.1 7.3
2 Gordon Hayward CHA 18.9 6.2 4.5
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 18.9 4.6 6.6
4 LaMelo Ball CHA 18.4 4.6 7.1
5 P.J. Washington CHA 17.1 5.8 2.3
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 16.0 4.0 2.0
7 Brandon Miller CHA 13.2 5.9 2.4
8 Mark Williams CHA 12.3 8.9 1.6
9 Grant Williams DAL 12.3 4.8 2.0
10 Josh Green DAL 11.2 3.2 2.0
11 Jaden Hardy DAL 10.3 2.7 2.1
12 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 8.6 2.6 1.0
13 Nick Richards CHA 8.2 7.2 1.0
14 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.0 6.8 1.3
15 JT Thor CHA 6.9 4.2 1.1
16 Theo Maledon CHA 5.6 2.5 1.5
17 Dwight Powell DAL 5.6 2.9 0.8
18 Dante Exum DAL 5.2 2.4 2.4
19 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 4.3 2.4 0.6
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.2 1.7 0.7
21 Seth Curry DAL 3.8 1.8 0.8
22 Amari Bailey CHA 1.8 0.6 0.4
23 Richaun Holmes DAL 1.6 2.4 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.