NBA games

GS @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
104–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS30153227104
CLE29282929115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home CLE
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 31 28 2 4
Draymond Green S 29 18 3 8
Jonathan Kuminga 20 15 3 0
Klay Thompson S 32 15 3 2
Andrew Wiggins S 26 8 5 1
Chris Paul 25 5 1 2
Trayce Jackson-Davis 12 5 4 1
Gary Payton II 12 5 2 1
Moses Moody 14 3 3 0
Kevon Looney S 15 2 11 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 34 31 2 7
Darius Garland S 30 24 3 7
Max Strus S 36 15 4 4
Evan Mobley S 29 13 16 2
Jarrett Allen S 28 12 9 3
Caris LeVert 32 8 5 2
Georges Niang 25 6 6 1
Dean Wade 13 3 4 0
Tristan Thompson 11 3 5 0
Sam Merrill 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Draymond Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevon Looney assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
16%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
16%
3 Darius Garland CLE
12%
4 Draymond Green GS
11%
5 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
6 Kevon Looney GS
10%
7 Klay Thompson GS
9%
8 Max Strus CLE
8%
9 Stephen Curry GS
8%
10 Jonathan Kuminga GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
27%
Jumper
14%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 26.4 5.0 5.3
2 Stephen Curry GS 25.5 4.9 4.1
3 Jonathan Kuminga GS 18.1 4.8 2.4
4 Caris LeVert CLE 17.2 4.1 4.9
5 Evan Mobley CLE 15.4 10.0 2.8
6 Darius Garland CLE 14.5 2.5 4.2
7 Max Strus CLE 12.8 4.8 3.2
8 Klay Thompson GS 12.7 4.1 1.9
9 Andrew Wiggins GS 12.2 3.4 1.5
10 Draymond Green GS 11.2 4.8 5.3
11 Chris Paul GS 9.6 3.8 6.5
12 Dario Saric GS 9.5 5.4 2.1
13 Moses Moody GS 8.4 3.2 1.3
14 Brandin Podziemski GS 7.2 5.6 4.0
15 Georges Niang CLE 6.9 3.6 1.4
16 Gary Payton II GS 6.5 2.9 1.3
17 Dean Wade CLE 6.5 3.3 1.0
18 Kevon Looney GS 6.4 7.5 2.3
19 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.4 4.3 0.4
20 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.2 3.0 0.9
21 Sam Merrill CLE 2.9 1.2 0.8
22 Damian Jones CLE 2.7 2.3 0.4
23 Cory Joseph GS 2.6 1.5 1.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.