NBA games

TOR @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
123–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
TOR2213363913123
SA262832246116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home SA
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 42 30 11 6
Dennis Schroder S 38 24 3 6
OG Anunoby S 38 24 6 4
Jakob Poeltl S 29 16 10 0
Gary Trent Jr. 29 10 0 0
Pascal Siakam S 36 8 6 5
Otto Porter Jr. 19 6 4 0
Malachi Flynn 15 5 3 4
Jalen McDaniels 5 0 1 0
Gradey Dick 14 0 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson S 38 26 6 3
Zach Collins S 38 21 11 5
Victor Wembanyama S 38 20 9 4
Malaki Branham S 25 16 6 2
Doug McDermott 24 12 1 2
Cedi Osman 26 7 4 3
Tre Jones 32 6 3 6
Jeremy Sochan S 29 4 4 5
Julian Champagnie 7 2 0 0
Charles Bassey 9 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dennis Schroder · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:16 Q1
"Dennis Schroder makes 13-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam TOR
14%
2 Jakob Poeltl TOR
13%
3 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
4 Zach Collins SA
12%
5 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
6 Jeremy Sochan SA
10%
7 Keldon Johnson SA
10%
8 Dennis Schroder TOR
10%
9 OG Anunoby TOR
8%
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
32%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.7 8.8 4.9
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 21.5 7.6 2.2
3 Pascal Siakam TOR 17.9 6.1 4.3
4 Zach Collins SA 15.8 6.6 4.7
5 Keldon Johnson SA 14.4 5.4 3.7
6 Dennis Schroder TOR 14.2 3.4 7.4
7 OG Anunoby TOR 14.0 3.9 2.3
8 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.5 3.1 1.8
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.1 5.8 4.3
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 10.2 8.7 1.6
11 Tre Jones SA 10.0 3.3 5.2
12 Cedi Osman SA 9.0 2.8 1.6
13 Malaki Branham SA 7.9 2.1 1.8
14 Chris Boucher TOR 6.2 4.9 0.7
15 Malachi Flynn TOR 6.0 2.6 2.3
16 Gradey Dick TOR 5.8 2.0 1.0
17 Doug McDermott SA 5.3 1.4 0.9
18 Charles Bassey SA 5.0 4.5 1.3
19 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.8 2.6 0.9
20 Thaddeus Young TOR 4.2 2.8 1.1
21 Blake Wesley SA 4.1 1.5 2.3
22 Julian Champagnie SA 3.6 2.6 0.6
23 Devonte' Graham SA 3.4 1.6 0.5
24 Dominick Barlow SA 3.2 1.2 0.5
25 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.9 1.1 0.4
26 Garrett Temple TOR 2.6 1.4 0.6
27 Sidy Cissoko SA 1.0 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.