NBA games

PHX @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
120–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX28303428120
DET27223126106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home DET
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 35 41 4 5
Eric Gordon S 31 21 5 8
Grayson Allen S 30 14 4 2
Josh Okogie 29 10 7 2
Drew Eubanks 18 8 3 1
Jordan Goodwin 21 8 7 3
Jusuf Nurkic S 28 6 4 7
Yuta Watanabe 20 6 1 0
Saben Lee 3 4 1 0
Bol Bol 3 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 39 26 3 6
Marcus Sasser 30 22 3 4
Ausar Thompson S 38 14 9 4
Killian Hayes S 34 13 2 5
Jalen Duren S 31 12 11 3
Marvin Bagley III 11 11 2 1
Isaiah Stewart S 34 8 2 1
Stanley Umude 4 0 0 0
Malcolm Cazalon 3 0 0 0
Jared Rhoden 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes driving layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
12%
3 Jalen Duren DET
11%
4 Isaiah Stewart DET
10%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
6 Grayson Allen PHX
10%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
8 Eric Gordon PHX
9%
9 Killian Hayes DET
8%
10 Keita Bates-Diop PHX
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
15%
Layup
46%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 25.7 6.0 4.0
2 Cade Cunningham DET 21.8 3.8 7.6
3 Ausar Thompson DET 13.4 9.5 3.5
4 Eric Gordon PHX 13.3 2.7 2.4
5 Isaiah Stewart DET 13.2 6.6 1.7
6 Jalen Duren DET 13.2 9.3 2.2
7 Grayson Allen PHX 12.7 3.7 3.5
8 Jaden Ivey DET 12.4 3.5 2.9
9 Killian Hayes DET 10.9 2.7 4.4
10 Marvin Bagley III DET 10.2 5.8 1.4
11 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.0 7.3 3.3
12 Josh Okogie PHX 9.2 3.8 1.7
13 Saben Lee PHX 8.4 2.4 2.9
14 Marcus Sasser DET 8.3 2.5 2.6
15 Yuta Watanabe PHX 7.9 3.1 1.0
16 Drew Eubanks PHX 7.6 6.2 2.2
17 Jordan Goodwin PHX 7.1 3.8 2.0
18 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 6.3 3.2 1.1
19 Chimezie Metu PHX 6.1 2.7 0.9
20 James Wiseman DET 5.7 4.1 0.9
21 Nassir Little PHX 5.4 2.4 0.9
22 Joe Harris DET 5.1 1.3 0.9
23 Stanley Umude DET 4.5 1.9 0.9
24 Bol Bol PHX 3.1 1.7 0.5
25 Jared Rhoden DET 3.1 1.9 0.7
26 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.3 2.8 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.