NBA games

CHI @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
101–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI22312127101
DEN23283537123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home DEN
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Vucevic S 30 19 7 3
DeMar DeRozan S 34 17 3 6
Jevon Carter 18 16 0 1
Zach LaVine S 31 12 4 4
Coby White S 31 11 2 5
Torrey Craig S 27 7 6 3
Patrick Williams 28 7 3 3
Andre Drummond 15 5 11 0
Alex Caruso 14 3 0 2
Dalen Terry 3 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 33 28 16 9
Michael Porter Jr. S 31 27 6 2
Reggie Jackson 25 16 1 3
Aaron Gordon S 35 15 12 5
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 30 10 0 2
Christian Braun 18 10 5 4
Collin Gillespie 12 5 1 2
Jalen Pickett 2 3 0 0
Julian Strawther 9 3 1 1
Peyton Watson 18 2 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Vucevic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Nikola Vucevic makes 9-foot two point shot (Coby White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
13%
2 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
3 Zach LaVine CHI
10%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
5 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
6 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
7 Coby White CHI
8%
8 DeAndre Jordan DEN
8%
9 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
7%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
37%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.1 10.7 6.8
2 Zach LaVine CHI 21.2 4.7 2.9
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI 18.5 3.4 3.5
4 Jamal Murray DEN 17.5 3.3 7.2
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 15.1 10.0 2.2
6 Coby White CHI 12.8 3.2 3.5
7 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 12.8 8.0 1.9
8 Aaron Gordon DEN 12.4 5.3 2.8
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.9 2.7 1.6
10 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.0 2.2 2.7
11 Christian Braun DEN 8.8 5.8 2.1
12 Julian Strawther DEN 8.3 1.7 0.9
13 Patrick Williams CHI 7.8 3.5 1.5
14 Peyton Watson DEN 6.8 3.2 1.2
15 Alex Caruso CHI 6.5 3.7 1.9
16 Hunter Tyson DEN 6.3 3.3 1.2
17 Andre Drummond CHI 6.1 6.6 1.0
18 Torrey Craig CHI 5.9 4.1 1.4
19 Jevon Carter CHI 5.8 1.7 1.6
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 5.4 3.6 0.9
21 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.1 2.8 2.9
22 Justin Holiday DEN 3.9 1.3 0.9
23 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.6 1.0 1.1
24 Collin Gillespie DEN 3.1 0.8 1.0
25 Onuralp Bitim CHI 2.9 0.6 0.3
26 Terry Taylor CHI 2.6 2.8 0.8
27 Julian Phillips CHI 2.2 1.2 0.2
28 Dalen Terry CHI 1.9 1.6 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.