NBA games

UTAH @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
95–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH2723271895
MIN29263731123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (MIN) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home MIN
29% 71%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 35 22 8 1
John Collins S 29 14 6 0
Talen Horton-Tucker S 24 14 4 5
Jordan Clarkson S 32 10 3 3
Keyonte George 27 8 0 4
Ochai Agbaji 17 8 2 1
Collin Sexton 19 7 4 4
Simone Fontecchio 10 5 2 0
Walker Kessler S 22 4 4 0
Luka Samanic 4 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 36 31 8 6
Karl-Anthony Towns S 32 25 7 1
Naz Reid 22 16 5 1
Kyle Anderson 27 12 3 6
Rudy Gobert S 29 11 10 1
Shake Milton 15 8 2 0
Mike Conley S 28 7 3 6
Jaden McDaniels S 20 5 0 1
Josh Minott 4 4 0 1
Daishen Nix 3 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Karl-Anthony Towns · Layup (2 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Karl-Anthony Towns makes driving layup (Anthony Edwards assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
12%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
4 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH
10%
5 Walker Kessler UTAH
9%
6 Mike Conley MIN
9%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
8 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
9%
9 John Collins UTAH
8%
10 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
16%
Layup
43%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 23.0 5.7 3.8
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 19.7 8.3 2.0
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 19.3 7.2 3.1
4 Naz Reid MIN 15.1 4.5 1.6
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 14.3 3.8 4.4
6 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 12.9 3.3 5.4
7 Collin Sexton UTAH 12.4 2.4 2.6
8 John Collins UTAH 12.0 6.4 1.4
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.3 9.6 1.1
10 Mike Conley MIN 9.7 2.6 3.1
11 Jaden McDaniels MIN 9.6 5.4 1.7
12 Keyonte George UTAH 9.1 2.3 3.0
13 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.2 6.7 1.0
14 Kyle Anderson MIN 7.2 3.0 4.2
15 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 6.9 4.2 3.3
16 Shake Milton MIN 6.8 1.9 2.7
17 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 5.8 2.3 1.7
18 Kris Dunn UTAH 5.3 1.9 2.1
19 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 5.1 2.3 1.1
20 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 5.1 2.4 0.9
21 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 5.0 2.0 0.9
22 Josh Minott MIN 4.5 2.1 1.5
23 Daishen Nix MIN 4.1 0.9 2.1
24 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 3.9 1.0 1.9
25 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.7 3.2 0.5
26 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.6 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.