NBA games

SAC @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
89–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC1934152189
HOU33261236107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (HOU) / 9 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home HOU
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Monk 26 18 3 7
Harrison Barnes S 32 13 3 0
JaVale McGee 15 12 6 0
Domantas Sabonis S 31 11 15 4
Chris Duarte 26 10 2 1
Keegan Murray S 33 7 2 1
Davion Mitchell S 26 7 3 5
Colby Jones 18 5 3 0
Kevin Huerter S 16 4 4 2
Jordan Ford 1 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dillon Brooks S 38 26 9 1
Jabari Smith Jr. S 35 21 11 0
Fred VanVleet S 36 21 6 12
Alperen Sengun S 34 15 9 6
Jae'Sean Tate 21 11 4 1
Jalen Green S 36 10 2 5
Jermaine Samuels Jr. 1 2 0 0
Jeff Green 5 1 5 0
Cam Whitmore 1 0 1 0
Jock Landale 12 0 3 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Green · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Jalen Green makes driving layup (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC
13%
3 Jalen Green HOU
12%
4 Keegan Murray SAC
11%
5 Fred VanVleet HOU
11%
6 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
10%
7 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
8 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
9 Kevin Huerter SAC
7%
10 Davion Mitchell SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
33%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC 18.8 12.1 6.3
2 Jalen Green HOU 18.5 4.6 2.5
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 16.9 8.5 4.7
4 Fred VanVleet HOU 16.2 3.2 6.1
5 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.7 7.3 2.3
6 Keegan Murray SAC 14.1 6.0 2.1
7 Dillon Brooks HOU 12.4 3.0 2.3
8 Malik Monk SAC 12.0 2.8 4.4
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.7 2.9 1.6
10 Kevin Huerter SAC 7.6 3.7 1.8
11 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.8 2.0 2.9
12 JaVale McGee SAC 6.7 3.7 1.1
13 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 6.5 3.4 0.8
14 Cam Whitmore HOU 6.4 2.1 0.7
15 Colby Jones SAC 6.2 1.7 1.3
16 Jock Landale HOU 5.6 2.7 1.2
17 Chris Duarte SAC 5.5 1.5 1.2
18 Jeff Green HOU 5.3 2.4 1.2
19 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.2 3.5 1.3
20 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.8 1.9 1.8
21 Filip Petrusev SAC 3.0 2.2 0.8
22 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.8 1.9 0.6
23 Keon Ellis SAC 2.5 1.7 0.5
24 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.3 1.8 0.4
25 Jordan Ford SAC 2.3 0.7 0.3
26 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.3 1.5 0.7
27 Alex Len SAC 2.2 1.9 0.9
28 Nate Hinton HOU 2.1 1.8 0.4
29 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 1.6 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.