NBA games

BOS @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
124–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS34362133124
BKN34243026114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (BKN) / 9 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home BKN
73% 27%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 41 32 11 1
Jaylen Brown S 35 23 5 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 30 22 7 1
Jrue Holiday S 40 18 9 10
Luke Kornet 15 11 7 0
Al Horford S 30 8 7 3
Sam Hauser 19 5 1 0
Oshae Brissett 11 5 3 1
Payton Pritchard 19 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cam Thomas S 37 27 5 3
Mikal Bridges S 38 19 6 4
Spencer Dinwiddie S 35 19 6 6
Dorian Finney-Smith S 37 14 8 1
Lonnie Walker IV 17 13 3 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 17 11 7 1
Royce O'Neale S 37 6 4 3
Dennis Smith Jr. 15 5 1 1
Trendon Watford 5 0 2 2
Armoni Brooks 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kristaps Porzingis · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Kristaps Porzingis makes 11-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
17%
2 Mikal Bridges BKN
17%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
4 Cam Thomas BKN
12%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
12%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
10%
7 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
10%
8 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
9%
9 Al Horford BOS
0%
10 Oshae Brissett BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
37%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
25%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.0 8.8 5.0
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.6 5.2 3.2
3 Cam Thomas BKN 20.7 3.8 2.5
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 19.2 4.7 3.6
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.0 7.3 1.5
6 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 14.2 2.9 2.1
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 12.7 5.7 3.5
8 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 11.7 3.6 1.7
9 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 11.0 2.4 4.8
10 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.7 2.6 4.3
11 Trendon Watford BKN 10.1 4.3 1.9
12 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.8 5.4 2.9
13 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 7.0 2.1 1.0
14 Sam Hauser BOS 6.8 3.4 1.1
15 Al Horford BOS 6.2 4.8 1.4
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.1 6.3 0.5
17 Armoni Brooks BKN 5.8 1.7 0.8
18 Dalano Banton BOS 5.6 2.2 1.0
19 Lamar Stevens BOS 5.4 3.2 0.7
20 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 4.8 1.8 1.2
21 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.8 3.1 0.7
22 Luke Kornet BOS 2.9 2.1 1.1
23 Jalen Wilson BKN 2.6 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.