NBA games

ATL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
123–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL27264129123
NO35252322105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (NO) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home NO
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 39 22 5 12
Jalen Johnson S 36 21 11 4
Dejounte Murray S 37 20 8 7
Onyeka Okongwu 20 17 6 0
Clint Capela S 28 17 7 0
Saddiq Bey 26 12 5 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 21 10 5 2
De'Andre Hunter S 30 4 5 1
Garrison Mathews 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 32 25 5 3
Brandon Ingram S 32 16 7 3
Jordan Hawkins 24 15 5 0
CJ McCollum S 33 13 1 6
Herbert Jones S 33 13 2 1
Dyson Daniels 22 7 3 5
Jonas Valanciunas S 21 6 7 0
Larry Nance Jr. 15 6 3 1
Matt Ryan 17 4 2 1
E.J. Liddell 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Johnson · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Jalen Johnson makes driving layup (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Brandon Ingram NO
13%
2 Zion Williamson NO
12%
3 De'Andre Hunter ATL
10%
4 Trae Young ATL
10%
5 Dejounte Murray ATL
9%
6 Clint Capela ATL
9%
7 CJ McCollum NO
7%
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO
7%
9 Herbert Jones NO
7%
10 Saddiq Bey ATL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
7%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
27%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 22.4 3.0 8.9
2 Zion Williamson NO 20.1 5.8 4.6
3 CJ McCollum NO 19.5 4.5 4.6
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 18.4 4.7 5.2
5 Brandon Ingram NO 18.4 5.4 3.8
6 De'Andre Hunter ATL 16.1 5.3 2.1
7 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.3 6.0 1.6
8 Jalen Johnson ATL 12.6 6.4 3.0
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 12.3 6.2 1.8
10 Jonas Valanciunas NO 12.0 7.7 2.0
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 10.6 3.2 3.5
12 Herbert Jones NO 9.8 4.1 1.7
13 Jordan Hawkins NO 9.8 2.8 1.7
14 Clint Capela ATL 9.0 9.1 0.9
15 Dyson Daniels NO 8.9 4.4 2.4
16 Matt Ryan NO 7.2 2.4 1.8
17 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 6.3 1.7 1.5
18 AJ Griffin ATL 5.7 1.8 1.0
19 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.4 4.9 1.1
20 Trent Forrest ATL 4.5 1.5 2.0
21 Bruno Fernando ATL 4.0 2.9 1.0
22 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.6 1.2 0.5
23 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 3.3 1.6 0.7
24 E.J. Liddell NO 3.0 2.3 0.7
25 Cody Zeller NO 2.5 1.6 0.6
26 Patty Mills ATL 1.5 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.