NBA games

LAL @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
101–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL25262921101
ORL39283419120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (ORL) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home ORL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Davis S 32 28 13 3
LeBron James S 35 24 9 5
Austin Reaves S 34 20 2 2
D'Angelo Russell S 35 11 4 4
Max Christie 23 6 5 0
Christian Wood 29 6 2 2
Colin Castleton 4 2 1 0
Jaxson Hayes 11 2 1 1
Cam Reddish S 24 2 3 0
Maxwell Lewis 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 33 26 5 2
Paolo Banchero S 34 25 7 10
Cole Anthony 23 14 5 1
Moritz Wagner 19 13 8 2
Anthony Black S 30 11 4 2
Goga Bitadze S 26 10 10 2
Jalen Suggs S 27 9 6 5
Joe Ingles 25 7 3 3
Admiral Schofield 3 5 0 0
Jonathan Isaac 11 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 16-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
16%
2 LeBron James LAL
14%
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL
13%
4 Anthony Davis LAL
12%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
12%
6 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
10%
8 Cam Reddish LAL
10%
9 Maxwell Lewis LAL
0%
10 Alex Fudge LAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
31%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 23.1 7.6 5.8
2 Anthony Davis LAL 20.3 9.4 2.7
3 Franz Wagner ORL 19.6 4.9 3.7
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 17.4 3.5 6.1
5 Paolo Banchero ORL 15.2 5.5 4.4
6 Austin Reaves LAL 14.2 4.1 3.4
7 Cole Anthony ORL 13.5 4.1 3.3
8 Jalen Suggs ORL 9.8 4.6 2.0
9 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.1 3.4 1.0
10 Christian Wood LAL 8.2 6.1 1.1
11 Max Christie LAL 6.8 2.5 1.1
12 Jett Howard ORL 5.3 1.2 0.8
13 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.2 1.9 0.7
14 Cam Reddish LAL 5.0 2.7 1.2
15 Anthony Black ORL 4.9 2.7 1.3
16 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.3 2.8 0.6
17 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.2 2.6 1.0
18 Joe Ingles ORL 4.1 1.9 1.6
19 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.9 3.0 0.8
20 Admiral Schofield ORL 3.2 3.5 1.2
21 Colin Castleton LAL 2.9 4.4 0.3
22 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.8 1.8 0.9
23 Maxwell Lewis LAL 2.6 0.6 0.9
24 D'Moi Hodge LAL 2.5 1.0 0.3
25 Alex Fudge LAL 1.3 1.2 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.