NBA games

CHA @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
125–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA27273833125
IND27195028124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (IND) / 8 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home IND
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mark Williams S 30 27 7 1
Gordon Hayward S 34 23 6 3
Terry Rozier S 31 22 6 3
P.J. Washington S 33 15 3 4
LaMelo Ball S 31 11 2 11
Brandon Miller 34 10 3 1
Nick Richards 18 10 10 0
JT Thor 15 7 4 0
Theo Maledon 14 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 37 43 2 12
Buddy Hield 26 19 6 2
Myles Turner S 27 14 6 2
Jalen Smith 21 11 9 1
Obi Toppin S 26 11 4 0
Bennedict Mathurin S 24 8 5 5
Bruce Brown S 32 7 1 6
Andrew Nembhard 18 7 1 2
Aaron Nesmith 25 4 2 1
T.J. McConnell 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 19-foot jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Myles Turner IND
12%
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND
12%
3 Terry Rozier CHA
11%
4 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
5 P.J. Washington CHA
11%
6 Gordon Hayward CHA
10%
7 Mark Williams CHA
9%
8 Bruce Brown IND
8%
9 Bennedict Mathurin IND
7%
10 Obi Toppin IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
38%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 26.5 4.4 10.9
2 Terry Rozier CHA 20.9 4.6 5.5
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 18.6 4.7 6.6
4 Gordon Hayward CHA 17.2 5.8 4.4
5 P.J. Washington CHA 17.1 6.0 2.0
6 Myles Turner IND 15.0 8.0 1.8
7 Brandon Miller CHA 13.5 5.9 2.6
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND 12.8 3.7 2.6
9 Bruce Brown IND 11.3 3.8 2.2
10 Buddy Hield IND 11.3 3.5 4.1
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.9 3.6 1.3
12 Mark Williams CHA 10.6 8.1 1.5
13 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.3 2.4 3.8
14 Jalen Smith IND 9.3 6.0 1.0
15 Obi Toppin IND 8.9 4.9 1.1
16 T.J. McConnell IND 8.7 2.9 5.0
17 Nick Richards CHA 7.7 6.6 0.9
18 Ben Sheppard IND 7.0 2.3 1.7
19 JT Thor CHA 6.8 4.1 1.1
20 Theo Maledon CHA 6.2 2.7 1.9
21 Jordan Nwora IND 5.0 1.6 1.1
22 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.5 4.0 0.7
23 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.3 1.7 0.7
24 Amari Bailey CHA 1.8 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.