NBA games

PHX @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
100–112
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX24213025100
PHI25272832112

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (PHI) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home PHI
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 36 31 8 3
Eric Gordon S 34 13 1 3
Jusuf Nurkic S 23 11 9 5
Drew Eubanks 20 10 5 4
Keita Bates-Diop S 24 8 3 2
Grayson Allen S 27 8 3 2
Jordan Goodwin 16 6 3 0
Yuta Watanabe 22 5 5 0
Josh Okogie 26 4 1 2
Nassir Little 4 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 31 26 11 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 35 25 3 0
Tyrese Maxey S 36 22 5 10
Tobias Harris S 34 18 10 2
De'Anthony Melton S 25 8 2 4
Furkan Korkmaz 18 5 2 1
Paul Reed 15 4 5 1
Jaden Springer 11 2 3 2
Robert Covington 18 2 4 0
KJ Martin 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jusuf Nurkic · Layup (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Jusuf Nurkic makes 1-foot two point shot (Eric Gordon assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
15%
2 Tobias Harris PHI
14%
3 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
11%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
11%
5 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
10%
8 Josh Okogie PHX
9%
9 De'Anthony Melton PHI
9%
10 Eric Gordon PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
72%
Jumper
5%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 30.8 11.1 6.2
2 Kevin Durant PHX 24.2 5.8 4.0
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.7 4.2 6.1
4 Tobias Harris PHI 17.5 6.2 2.8
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.5 4.4 1.9
6 De'Anthony Melton PHI 13.3 4.0 5.1
7 Eric Gordon PHX 12.8 2.9 2.4
8 Grayson Allen PHX 12.5 4.0 3.6
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.5 7.6 3.3
10 Josh Okogie PHX 9.2 3.9 1.6
11 Saben Lee PHX 8.2 2.4 3.0
12 Yuta Watanabe PHX 7.9 3.0 1.1
13 Drew Eubanks PHX 7.1 6.3 2.2
14 Jordan Goodwin PHX 7.0 3.8 2.2
15 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 7.0 1.5 1.0
16 Paul Reed PHI 6.7 5.6 1.3
17 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 6.0 2.8 0.9
18 Jaden Springer PHI 6.0 2.8 1.1
19 Patrick Beverley PHI 5.9 2.8 1.6
20 KJ Martin PHI 5.7 2.7 1.0
21 Nassir Little PHX 5.2 2.2 0.9
22 Chimezie Metu PHX 5.1 2.5 0.9
23 Robert Covington PHI 5.1 2.4 1.0
24 Bol Bol PHX 2.9 1.8 0.6
25 Mo Bamba PHI 2.9 2.3 0.5
26 Danuel House Jr. PHI 2.3 2.1 1.0
27 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.2 3.0 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.