NBA games

SA @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
132–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA39362829132
PHX20353432121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (PHX) / 9 (SA) games this season
SA away
home PHX
71% 29%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 34 38 10 2
Zach Collins S 35 19 8 4
Devin Vassell S 17 17 2 1
Jeremy Sochan S 26 14 5 9
Cedi Osman 22 13 2 1
Tre Jones 28 12 5 10
Keldon Johnson S 35 7 7 6
Doug McDermott 16 6 0 0
Charles Bassey 6 3 1 1
Malaki Branham 20 3 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 35 31 9 13
Kevin Durant S 37 28 6 1
Grayson Allen S 33 16 2 4
Keita Bates-Diop 18 13 2 0
Drew Eubanks 27 13 5 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 19 7 3 2
Eric Gordon 24 7 1 1
Yuta Watanabe 26 3 4 1
Jordan Goodwin 10 3 1 3
Josh Okogie S 12 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Vassell · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Devin Vassell makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jeremy Sochan assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
2 Keldon Johnson SA
11%
3 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
4 Eric Gordon PHX
9%
5 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Zach Collins SA
9%
8 Devin Booker PHX
8%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
10 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
33%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 24.9 5.8 4.6
2 Devin Booker PHX 21.9 3.6 5.4
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 20.0 7.5 2.1
4 Devin Vassell SA 17.7 3.4 2.8
5 Zach Collins SA 15.4 6.4 4.8
6 Keldon Johnson SA 15.0 5.0 3.7
7 Eric Gordon PHX 14.4 3.2 2.6
8 Grayson Allen PHX 13.0 4.2 3.6
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.9 5.8 3.8
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 10.5 8.3 3.4
11 Josh Okogie PHX 10.3 4.3 1.9
12 Tre Jones SA 10.0 3.1 4.9
13 Cedi Osman SA 9.0 2.8 1.7
14 Saben Lee PHX 8.7 2.4 3.0
15 Malaki Branham SA 8.5 2.3 1.8
16 Yuta Watanabe PHX 8.5 3.1 1.1
17 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.1 4.5 2.2
18 Drew Eubanks PHX 6.8 6.4 2.4
19 Nassir Little PHX 6.0 2.5 1.1
20 Chimezie Metu PHX 5.6 2.6 0.9
21 Doug McDermott SA 5.5 1.5 0.9
22 Charles Bassey SA 5.1 4.7 1.3
23 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 4.9 2.8 0.8
24 Julian Champagnie SA 4.7 2.9 0.8
25 Blake Wesley SA 4.4 1.5 2.4
26 Devonte' Graham SA 3.6 1.6 0.5
27 Dominick Barlow SA 3.3 1.2 0.5
28 Bol Bol PHX 3.3 1.9 0.6
29 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.1 1.2 0.4
30 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.6 3.1 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.