NBA games

ORL @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
115–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL30362425115
UTAH34242827113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 8 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home UTAH
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 36 30 9 5
Franz Wagner S 38 21 4 5
Cole Anthony 31 18 7 7
Wendell Carter Jr. S 29 14 10 2
Moritz Wagner 19 10 1 1
Anthony Black 16 9 3 1
Jalen Suggs S 21 6 4 3
Joe Ingles 24 4 2 1
Jonathan Isaac 12 3 3 1
Gary Harris S 14 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 33 22 7 1
Jordan Clarkson S 37 21 6 6
John Collins S 33 20 10 0
Talen Horton-Tucker S 31 15 3 8
Collin Sexton 17 10 1 1
Omer Yurtseven 8 7 3 0
Keyonte George 17 6 2 3
Kelly Olynyk 19 4 2 3
Walker Kessler S 25 4 10 1
Ochai Agbaji 8 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Wendell Carter Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Wendell Carter Jr. makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
3 Markelle Fultz ORL
11%
4 Walker Kessler UTAH
10%
5 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH
10%
6 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
8 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
9%
9 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
9%
10 John Collins UTAH
9%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
29%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
39%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 19.9 8.5 2.0
2 Franz Wagner ORL 18.5 4.8 3.1
3 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 13.1 3.8 4.1
4 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 12.3 3.5 4.8
5 Cole Anthony ORL 11.9 3.8 2.6
6 Collin Sexton UTAH 11.9 2.4 2.9
7 John Collins UTAH 11.8 6.3 1.4
8 Paolo Banchero ORL 11.7 4.6 4.0
9 Markelle Fultz ORL 11.0 4.1 3.9
10 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.5 6.7 2.0
11 Jalen Suggs ORL 9.9 4.4 1.6
12 Keyonte George UTAH 9.1 2.4 3.2
13 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.0 3.3 0.9
14 Walker Kessler UTAH 8.3 6.5 1.0
15 Gary Harris ORL 7.9 2.6 1.5
16 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 7.4 4.3 3.2
17 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.2 2.1 2.5
18 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 5.8 2.6 1.0
19 Jett Howard ORL 5.7 1.3 0.7
20 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.5 2.0 0.7
21 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 5.4 2.0 1.1
22 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.6 2.7 1.0
23 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.2 2.5 0.5
24 Anthony Black ORL 4.2 2.5 1.2
25 Joe Ingles ORL 3.8 1.8 1.5
26 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.4 3.3 0.5
27 Chuma Okeke ORL 3.3 2.1 0.9
28 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.6 1.2 0.4
29 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 2.4 1.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.