NBA games

DET @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
116–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET29203433116
NO35372231125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (NO) / 9 (DET) games this season
DET away
home NO
59% 41%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 34 22 2 11
Marcus Sasser 23 19 2 3
Ausar Thompson S 25 16 7 5
Jalen Duren S 25 12 5 1
Jaden Ivey 22 12 7 0
Isaiah Stewart S 35 11 8 0
Killian Hayes S 39 10 5 9
Joe Harris 24 8 3 1
Marvin Bagley III 13 6 9 0
Stanley Umude 1 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 35 33 4 5
Jonas Valanciunas S 33 23 13 5
Herbert Jones S 34 21 5 3
Matt Ryan S 35 20 2 2
Dyson Daniels 25 10 7 6
Jordan Hawkins S 29 6 1 0
Kira Lewis Jr. 20 6 3 4
Larry Nance Jr. 15 4 1 1
Dereon Seabron 13 2 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
CJ McCollum · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:00 Q1
"CJ McCollum makes 17-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
14%
2 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
3 Jalen Duren DET
10%
4 Jonas Valanciunas NO
9%
5 Marvin Bagley III DET
8%
6 CJ McCollum NO
8%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
8%
8 Isaiah Stewart DET
8%
9 Herbert Jones NO
8%
10 Killian Hayes DET
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
23%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
29%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 21.9 4.3 7.4
2 Zion Williamson NO 20.4 5.9 4.4
3 CJ McCollum NO 18.4 4.5 4.4
4 Isaiah Stewart DET 13.7 6.9 1.8
5 Ausar Thompson DET 13.3 10.3 3.5
6 Jalen Duren DET 13.2 10.3 2.4
7 Jaden Ivey DET 12.9 3.6 3.5
8 Killian Hayes DET 11.1 2.8 3.8
9 Marvin Bagley III DET 10.8 6.2 1.5
10 Jonas Valanciunas NO 10.4 6.9 1.6
11 Jordan Hawkins NO 9.9 2.9 1.9
12 Herbert Jones NO 8.5 4.1 1.4
13 Dyson Daniels NO 8.2 4.3 1.9
14 Marcus Sasser DET 7.5 2.7 2.6
15 James Wiseman DET 6.3 4.5 1.0
16 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 6.1 1.6 1.3
17 Matt Ryan NO 6.0 2.3 1.6
18 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.8 5.7 1.2
19 Stanley Umude DET 5.3 2.3 1.0
20 Joe Harris DET 5.1 1.4 0.9
21 Dereon Seabron NO 4.1 1.9 1.2
22 Jared Rhoden DET 3.7 2.2 0.8
23 E.J. Liddell NO 3.2 2.4 0.7
24 Cody Zeller NO 2.7 1.7 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.