NBA games

TOR @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
99–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR2623282299
PHI30283224114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (PHI) / 9 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home PHI
32% 68%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 35 24 8 8
OG Anunoby S 33 16 4 1
Dennis Schroder S 31 13 3 10
Pascal Siakam S 33 10 3 6
Jakob Poeltl S 28 9 9 2
Gary Trent Jr. 23 8 5 0
Malachi Flynn 17 6 3 1
Chris Boucher 13 6 4 0
Jalen McDaniels 9 5 1 0
Garrett Temple 2 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 35 28 13 7
Tobias Harris S 40 23 7 3
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 30 23 5 0
Tyrese Maxey S 40 18 1 4
Furkan Korkmaz 22 10 1 0
Paul Reed 12 6 5 0
De'Anthony Melton S 21 4 5 5
Patrick Beverley 28 2 5 1
Mo Bamba 1 0 2 0
KJ Martin 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Scottie Barnes · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:28 Q1
"Scottie Barnes makes 6-foot two point shot (Pascal Siakam assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
18%
2 Tobias Harris PHI
12%
3 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
4 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
5 Pascal Siakam TOR
10%
6 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
7 De'Anthony Melton PHI
8%
8 Dennis Schroder TOR
8%
9 OG Anunoby TOR
7%
10 Robert Covington PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
78%
Jumper
7%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 30.0 10.0 6.0
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.5 4.3 5.9
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.8 8.9 4.7
4 Pascal Siakam TOR 19.7 6.4 4.0
5 Tobias Harris PHI 16.8 6.2 2.5
6 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 15.8 4.3 1.8
7 Dennis Schroder TOR 14.4 3.4 6.9
8 De'Anthony Melton PHI 14.1 4.1 4.9
9 OG Anunoby TOR 13.1 3.5 2.2
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 11.6 2.9 1.8
11 Jakob Poeltl TOR 9.7 8.6 1.5
12 Paul Reed PHI 6.3 5.6 1.3
13 Chris Boucher TOR 6.0 4.9 0.8
14 Malachi Flynn TOR 5.8 2.4 2.5
15 Gradey Dick TOR 5.8 2.1 0.8
16 Jaden Springer PHI 5.8 2.8 1.1
17 KJ Martin PHI 5.7 2.9 1.1
18 Patrick Beverley PHI 5.1 2.2 1.5
19 Robert Covington PHI 5.0 2.6 1.1
20 Jalen McDaniels TOR 4.6 2.8 1.0
21 Thaddeus Young TOR 4.0 2.7 0.9
22 Danuel House Jr. PHI 2.7 2.3 1.2
23 Garrett Temple TOR 2.6 1.5 0.6
24 Mo Bamba PHI 2.3 2.1 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.