NBA games

SAC @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
101–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC31242422101
GS28281828102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (GS) / 8 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home GS
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Domantas Sabonis S 37 23 11 8
Malik Monk 25 16 3 2
Harrison Barnes S 31 14 1 1
Davion Mitchell S 30 13 3 4
Kevin Huerter S 27 11 9 3
Keegan Murray S 39 10 6 3
JaVale McGee 10 6 6 0
Colby Jones 17 4 3 1
Sasha Vezenkov 17 2 5 0
Chris Duarte 7 2 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 32 21 5 3
Dario Saric 20 15 6 2
Klay Thompson S 29 14 2 2
Andrew Wiggins S 25 14 2 0
Draymond Green S 28 13 2 9
Jonathan Kuminga 17 12 1 1
Kevon Looney S 23 6 9 6
Gary Payton II 22 4 2 1
Chris Paul 28 2 4 8
Moses Moody 15 1 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Draymond Green · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Draymond Green makes 27-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
16%
2 Keegan Murray SAC
12%
3 Harrison Barnes SAC
11%
4 Kevon Looney GS
11%
5 Stephen Curry GS
11%
6 Klay Thompson GS
10%
7 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
8 Moses Moody GS
10%
9 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
10 Jonathan Kuminga GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
22%
Free Throw
4%
Jumper
20%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 25.9 4.9 4.1
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS 18.8 5.5 2.9
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 17.1 11.6 6.0
4 Keegan Murray SAC 14.7 6.0 1.9
5 Klay Thompson GS 12.5 4.2 1.9
6 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.7 2.9 1.6
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 11.6 3.2 1.5
8 Malik Monk SAC 11.2 2.3 4.5
9 Chris Paul GS 11.1 4.4 6.5
10 Moses Moody GS 10.3 3.8 1.5
11 Dario Saric GS 8.4 5.1 2.1
12 Brandin Podziemski GS 8.3 6.0 4.5
13 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 6.9 3.0 0.7
14 Kevon Looney GS 6.9 8.2 1.8
15 Kevin Huerter SAC 6.7 3.0 1.7
16 JaVale McGee SAC 6.7 3.2 1.2
17 Gary Payton II GS 6.3 2.7 1.2
18 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.1 1.5 2.7
19 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.8 4.9 0.6
20 Chris Duarte SAC 5.4 1.4 1.1
21 Colby Jones SAC 5.1 1.1 1.0
22 Cory Joseph GS 3.7 2.1 2.1
23 Keon Ellis SAC 2.8 1.7 0.5
24 Kessler Edwards SAC 2.7 2.0 0.3
25 Jordan Ford SAC 2.5 0.8 0.3
26 Alex Len SAC 2.4 1.9 0.9
27 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.4 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.