NBA games

CHI @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
105–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI23273322105
DAL26233233114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (DAL) / 9 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home DAL
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 36 22 2 1
Nikola Vucevic S 36 21 20 1
DeMar DeRozan S 33 16 3 7
Jevon Carter 15 12 1 2
Coby White S 33 10 1 4
Andre Drummond 12 8 3 0
Ayo Dosunmu 11 8 1 1
Alex Caruso 22 6 4 1
Torrey Craig 17 2 5 1
Patrick Williams S 25 0 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Grant Williams S 30 25 5 1
Tim Hardaway Jr. 27 24 3 2
Luka Doncic S 40 18 7 10
Derrick Jones Jr. S 31 17 5 1
Jaden Hardy 14 9 1 1
Dereck Lively II S 33 7 13 6
Dwight Powell 10 5 1 1
Seth Curry 12 4 3 0
Josh Green S 26 3 3 1
Dante Exum 10 2 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:44 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach LaVine CHI
19%
2 Luka Doncic DAL
15%
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI
13%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
13%
5 Coby White CHI
8%
6 Dereck Lively II DAL
7%
7 Josh Green DAL
6%
8 Grant Williams DAL
6%
9 Patrick Williams CHI
6%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
5%
Jumper
35%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 27.5 7.9 7.0
2 Zach LaVine CHI 21.8 4.7 2.8
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI 19.6 4.0 3.3
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 16.1 10.0 2.6
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 14.9 4.0 1.9
6 Coby White CHI 13.8 3.8 4.3
7 Jaden Hardy DAL 11.9 2.9 2.2
8 Josh Green DAL 10.6 3.0 2.0
9 Grant Williams DAL 10.0 4.7 1.9
10 Patrick Williams CHI 9.5 3.5 1.8
11 Alex Caruso CHI 7.5 4.0 2.4
12 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 7.5 2.4 2.0
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 7.1 6.0 0.9
14 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 7.0 2.1 0.8
15 Torrey Craig CHI 6.6 3.9 1.4
16 Andre Drummond CHI 6.6 7.4 1.3
17 Jevon Carter CHI 6.2 1.7 1.8
18 Dante Exum DAL 5.5 2.5 3.0
19 Dwight Powell DAL 5.2 3.2 0.6
20 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.4 3.2 1.0
21 Seth Curry DAL 4.4 1.5 0.8
22 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.6 2.0 0.4
23 Terry Taylor CHI 3.5 3.1 1.1
24 Julian Phillips CHI 3.0 1.4 0.3
25 Richaun Holmes DAL 1.3 2.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.