NBA games

DEN @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
89–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN2123281789
MIN28352621110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (MIN) / 9 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home MIN
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 30 25 10 3
Jamal Murray S 32 14 6 6
Zeke Nnaji 18 9 5 0
Christian Braun 20 8 9 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 26 6 0 0
Julian Strawther 16 5 0 0
Michael Porter Jr. S 25 5 5 1
Peyton Watson 16 4 2 1
Aaron Gordon S 18 4 2 2
Justin Holiday 6 3 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 32 24 2 1
Karl-Anthony Towns S 31 21 8 4
Mike Conley S 27 17 3 6
Naz Reid 19 16 5 1
Kyle Anderson 25 9 3 2
Jaden McDaniels S 21 6 9 2
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 21 5 0 1
Rudy Gobert S 32 4 12 1
Troy Brown Jr. 5 4 4 1
Josh Minott 4 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaden McDaniels · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Jaden McDaniels makes 13-foot two point shot (Mike Conley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
13%
2 Jamal Murray DEN
11%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
5 Nikola Jokic DEN
10%
6 Anthony Edwards MIN
9%
7 Mike Conley MIN
9%
8 DeAndre Jordan DEN
9%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
10 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
40%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.2 10.3 6.3
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 22.8 6.0 4.1
3 Jamal Murray DEN 18.1 3.0 6.4
4 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 16.5 7.3 2.5
5 Naz Reid MIN 14.3 4.5 1.6
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 12.2 8.2 2.1
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 12.0 5.2 2.5
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.4 2.6 1.7
9 Rudy Gobert MIN 10.3 10.0 1.1
10 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.0 2.3 2.2
11 Julian Strawther DEN 8.7 1.9 1.0
12 Christian Braun DEN 8.6 5.4 2.7
13 Peyton Watson DEN 7.7 3.2 1.1
14 Mike Conley MIN 7.6 2.4 2.8
15 Hunter Tyson DEN 7.1 3.4 1.3
16 Shake Milton MIN 7.1 2.2 2.8
17 Kyle Anderson MIN 6.9 3.2 4.3
18 Zeke Nnaji DEN 6.2 3.5 1.0
19 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 5.8 2.6 1.7
20 Josh Minott MIN 4.9 2.5 1.5
21 Jordan McLaughlin MIN 4.5 1.2 2.2
22 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 4.4 2.2 0.6
23 Justin Holiday DEN 4.3 1.3 1.1
24 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.0 2.8 2.8
25 Braxton Key DEN 3.8 2.5 1.1
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.1 0.6 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.