NBA games

CHA @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
119–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA27312041119
HOU39222542128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (HOU) / 7 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home HOU
18% 82%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 35 23 3 0
Terry Rozier S 38 21 3 6
LaMelo Ball S 33 19 1 5
Gordon Hayward S 31 17 7 5
Nick Richards 19 10 8 0
Brandon Miller 24 10 5 2
Mark Williams S 25 9 6 1
Theo Maledon 21 5 6 2
JT Thor 13 5 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 31 23 4 3
Fred VanVleet S 39 22 3 11
Dillon Brooks S 38 20 3 5
Alperen Sengun S 27 19 7 4
Jabari Smith Jr. S 30 17 6 4
Jeff Green 12 9 2 0
Aaron Holiday 11 6 1 1
Amen Thompson 13 4 1 1
Jock Landale 19 4 5 1
Jae'Sean Tate 19 4 6 5

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LaMelo Ball · Layup (2 pts) · 11:25 Q1
"LaMelo Ball makes 1-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 LaMelo Ball CHA
12%
3 Terry Rozier CHA
11%
4 P.J. Washington CHA
10%
5 Jalen Green HOU
10%
6 Gordon Hayward CHA
10%
7 Mark Williams CHA
9%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
37%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Terry Rozier CHA 20.3 4.5 5.2
2 Jalen Green HOU 17.8 4.7 2.3
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 17.3 5.0 6.4
4 Alperen Sengun HOU 16.2 8.8 4.9
5 P.J. Washington CHA 16.0 6.3 2.1
6 Gordon Hayward CHA 16.0 5.3 4.2
7 Fred VanVleet HOU 15.1 3.1 5.4
8 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 14.6 7.5 2.0
9 Brandon Miller CHA 13.3 6.0 2.5
10 Dillon Brooks HOU 11.1 2.9 1.9
11 Amen Thompson HOU 10.4 4.1 2.8
12 Mark Williams CHA 10.1 8.0 1.4
13 Cam Whitmore HOU 7.0 2.4 0.7
14 Nick Richards CHA 6.9 6.3 0.9
15 JT Thor CHA 6.8 3.9 1.1
16 Theo Maledon CHA 5.8 2.3 1.6
17 Jeff Green HOU 5.6 2.7 1.4
18 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.2 3.2 1.0
19 Jock Landale HOU 5.0 1.9 1.1
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.1 1.8 0.7
21 Aaron Holiday HOU 3.3 1.9 1.6
22 Boban Marjanovic HOU 3.2 2.0 0.7
23 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.7 1.7 0.7
24 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.4 1.3 0.6
25 Nate Hinton HOU 2.3 1.8 0.4
26 Amari Bailey CHA 1.3 0.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.