NBA games

NO @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
110–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO14293532110
OKC33182629106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (OKC) / 7 (NO) games this season
NO away
home OKC
62% 38%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 37 29 11 5
Zion Williamson S 33 20 10 8
Jonas Valanciunas S 21 19 9 2
Jordan Hawkins S 37 10 6 4
Larry Nance Jr. 23 9 7 2
Dyson Daniels 25 8 4 1
Kira Lewis Jr. 10 5 0 0
Matt Ryan 20 5 3 0
Herbert Jones S 31 5 6 1
Cody Zeller 2 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 20 5 8
Chet Holmgren S 37 19 11 3
Jalen Williams S 38 18 8 3
Josh Giddey S 31 15 9 4
Aaron Wiggins 14 10 4 2
Luguentz Dort S 30 9 2 0
Isaiah Joe 14 9 1 1
Cason Wallace 18 4 2 1
Ousmane Dieng 12 2 2 1
Lindy Waters III 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
12%
3 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
5 Josh Giddey OKC
9%
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO
9%
7 CJ McCollum NO
9%
8 Jordan Hawkins NO
8%
9 Herbert Jones NO
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
32%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
28%
Layup
33%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 24.3 6.6 6.3
2 Jalen Williams OKC 19.1 4.6 4.3
3 Zion Williamson NO 18.6 5.5 3.6
4 CJ McCollum NO 16.6 3.9 4.4
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.7 6.6 2.0
6 Josh Giddey OKC 14.5 6.3 5.1
7 Luguentz Dort OKC 12.5 4.0 1.5
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO 9.1 7.0 1.6
9 Jordan Hawkins NO 9.1 2.6 1.6
10 Herbert Jones NO 8.6 4.0 1.4
11 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.3 2.4 1.4
12 Dyson Daniels NO 8.2 4.3 2.0
13 Ousmane Dieng OKC 8.2 3.4 2.2
14 Cason Wallace OKC 8.1 3.1 1.6
15 Davis Bertans OKC 7.0 1.4 0.8
16 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 6.4 1.9 1.3
17 Matt Ryan NO 6.0 2.3 1.6
18 Vasilije Micic OKC 5.8 1.6 4.6
19 Tre Mann OKC 5.5 2.4 1.5
20 Larry Nance Jr. NO 5.0 5.6 1.0
21 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.7 2.2 0.7
22 Olivier Sarr OKC 4.4 4.3 0.8
23 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.2 1.5 0.5
24 E.J. Liddell NO 3.3 2.5 0.7
25 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 3.0 1.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.