NBA games

CLE @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
95–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CLE2425222495
NY2228132689

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (NY) / 8 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home NY
74% 26%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Donovan Mitchell S 37 30 6 4
Caris LeVert 31 19 6 5
Evan Mobley S 35 14 8 5
Max Strus S 35 9 4 4
Dean Wade 20 6 3 0
Tristan Thompson 13 6 5 0
Georges Niang S 28 5 10 2
Craig Porter Jr. 11 4 1 0
Isaac Okoro S 31 2 3 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 39 24 4 4
Immanuel Quickley 28 18 6 4
Donte DiVincenzo 30 16 2 0
Josh Hart S 29 11 8 3
Mitchell Robinson S 32 6 16 0
Julius Randle S 35 6 6 4
Quentin Grimes S 22 5 2 1
Miles McBride 9 3 0 0
Isaiah Hartenstein 16 0 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Donovan Mitchell · Layup (2 pts) · 11:01 Q1
"Donovan Mitchell makes 1-foot two point shot (Isaac Okoro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE
12%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
3 RJ Barrett NY
11%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
5 Julius Randle NY
10%
6 Mitchell Robinson NY
9%
7 Caris LeVert CLE
9%
8 Isaac Okoro CLE
7%
9 Quentin Grimes NY
7%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
36%
Layup
34%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Donovan Mitchell CLE 25.6 5.1 4.5
2 RJ Barrett NY 20.0 3.7 3.1
3 Jalen Brunson NY 17.4 3.7 4.3
4 Caris LeVert CLE 17.1 3.5 4.6
5 Immanuel Quickley NY 16.9 3.5 3.3
6 Julius Randle NY 15.6 9.4 3.9
7 Evan Mobley CLE 15.1 10.4 2.1
8 Max Strus CLE 12.8 5.7 3.2
9 Isaac Okoro CLE 11.2 4.8 2.4
10 Mitchell Robinson NY 8.9 9.1 1.0
11 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 8.8 4.9 1.5
12 Quentin Grimes NY 8.2 2.0 1.5
13 Miles McBride NY 8.1 1.5 2.7
14 Donte DiVincenzo NY 7.6 2.9 2.3
15 Evan Fournier NY 7.4 2.0 0.7
16 Dean Wade CLE 7.3 3.9 1.3
17 Emoni Bates CLE 7.1 2.7 0.7
18 Georges Niang CLE 6.5 3.0 1.3
19 Josh Hart NY 6.3 4.9 1.5
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.9 1.9 1.6
21 Isaiah Mobley CLE 4.0 2.8 0.9
22 Sam Merrill CLE 3.8 1.7 1.0
23 DaQuan Jeffries NY 3.8 1.2 0.8
24 Damian Jones CLE 3.5 3.0 0.5
25 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.3 3.6 1.1
26 Jericho Sims NY 3.2 3.6 1.0
27 Dylan Windler NY 2.8 1.1 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.