NBA games

BKN @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
109–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN29172934109
MIA32242722105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (MIA) / 7 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home MIA
82% 18%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Mikal Bridges S 31 21 7 5
Lonnie Walker IV 25 17 3 4
Armoni Brooks 16 17 2 0
Dorian Finney-Smith S 30 15 3 2
Cam Thomas S 34 13 2 1
Trendon Watford 14 11 4 4
Royce O'Neale S 39 6 7 5
Day'Ron Sharpe 13 5 7 1
Ben Simmons S 34 4 11 5
Jalen Wilson 6 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 36 30 3 5
Bam Adebayo S 33 21 14 3
Jimmy Butler III S 34 20 7 3
Haywood Highsmith 22 9 4 2
Thomas Bryant 15 8 5 0
Kyle Lowry S 30 6 3 3
Duncan Robinson 21 5 3 2
Josh Richardson 30 4 3 3
Jaime Jaquez Jr. S 19 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Ben Simmons · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Ben Simmons makes 2-foot hook shot (Dorian Finney-Smith assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Tyler Herro MIA
14%
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA
13%
3 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
4 Mikal Bridges BKN
11%
5 Ben Simmons BKN
8%
6 Nic Claxton BKN
8%
7 Cam Thomas BKN
8%
8 Thomas Bryant MIA
8%
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA
6%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
21%
Layup
45%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 25.1 4.6 4.6
2 Cam Thomas BKN 22.5 3.7 2.6
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 19.8 6.8 2.8
4 Mikal Bridges BKN 19.7 4.8 3.3
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA 17.5 7.4 3.4
6 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 14.7 3.1 2.0
7 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.1 3.7 1.7
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 10.0 2.7 2.0
9 Trendon Watford BKN 9.7 4.0 1.4
10 Ben Simmons BKN 9.4 7.6 6.5
11 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.0 5.3 2.0
12 Nic Claxton BKN 8.5 5.5 1.5
13 Kyle Lowry MIA 8.1 3.2 3.9
14 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.1 2.0 1.5
15 Thomas Bryant MIA 7.9 4.5 1.2
16 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 7.2 3.2 1.9
17 Nikola Jovic MIA 7.1 4.4 1.6
18 Dru Smith MIA 7.1 2.0 4.1
19 Orlando Robinson MIA 6.9 4.1 1.9
20 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 6.3 6.1 0.7
21 Josh Richardson MIA 6.0 2.4 1.6
22 Armoni Brooks BKN 3.0 1.4 0.7
23 Jalen Wilson BKN 2.4 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.