NBA games

IND @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
104–155
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND27271733104
BOS44313446155

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (BOS) / 7 (IND) games this season
IND away
home BOS
24% 76%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
T.J. McConnell 28 18 7 5
Andrew Nembhard S 20 14 2 1
Obi Toppin S 25 11 2 1
Aaron Nesmith 19 9 1 1
Myles Turner S 22 8 5 3
Bennedict Mathurin S 15 8 1 0
Jarace Walker 12 8 2 3
Buddy Hield 24 7 4 5
Isaiah Jackson 19 7 3 1
Ben Sheppard 15 6 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 27 30 12 4
Derrick White S 27 18 3 4
Sam Hauser 19 17 3 0
Jaylen Brown S 25 16 7 1
Payton Pritchard 26 15 4 9
Jrue Holiday S 25 15 7 4
Kristaps Porzingis S 27 13 6 2
Dalano Banton 8 11 3 1
Al Horford 11 5 4 0
Svi Mykhailiuk 11 5 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jrue Holiday · Layup (2 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Jrue Holiday makes finger roll layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
15%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
13%
3 Bennedict Mathurin IND
13%
4 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
5 Obi Toppin IND
10%
6 Myles Turner IND
9%
7 Derrick White BOS
9%
8 Jrue Holiday BOS
9%
9 Bruce Brown IND
9%
10 Payton Pritchard BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
50%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
13%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.3 8.3 5.2
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.8 5.0 3.5
3 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.6 7.5 1.5
4 Derrick White BOS 14.3 4.7 3.4
5 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.4 3.8 2.3
6 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.0 5.7 3.6
7 Myles Turner IND 12.4 7.7 1.4
8 Payton Pritchard BOS 10.4 2.4 3.9
9 Andrew Nembhard IND 10.2 2.7 4.4
10 Buddy Hield IND 10.0 3.1 4.0
11 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.0 3.3 1.2
12 Bruce Brown IND 9.8 3.5 2.0
13 Obi Toppin IND 8.1 5.2 0.8
14 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 8.0 2.2 1.3
15 Al Horford BOS 7.1 5.3 1.8
16 Sam Hauser BOS 6.7 3.6 1.3
17 Lamar Stevens BOS 6.7 3.7 0.9
18 T.J. McConnell IND 6.5 1.9 4.5
19 Dalano Banton BOS 6.1 2.2 1.3
20 Ben Sheppard IND 5.4 1.9 1.2
21 Jarace Walker IND 5.3 4.0 1.0
22 Oshae Brissett BOS 4.4 3.4 0.9
23 Luke Kornet BOS 3.6 2.5 1.4
24 Jordan Nwora IND 3.0 1.0 0.5
25 Isaiah Jackson IND 2.5 2.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.