NBA games

WSH @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
121–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH30213139121
ATL25344031130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (ATL) / 7 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home ATL
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 25 25 9 6
Deni Avdija S 24 22 5 3
Jordan Poole S 20 13 0 1
Landry Shamet 12 8 1 2
Danilo Gallinari 19 8 5 0
Eugene Omoruyi 8 7 2 0
Johnny Davis 10 7 1 0
Mike Muscala S 22 7 4 1
Ryan Rollins 7 6 0 1
Tyus Jones S 22 6 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 34 24 4 8
De'Andre Hunter S 33 23 7 3
Trae Young S 35 23 3 10
Onyeka Okongwu 27 16 11 2
Saddiq Bey S 32 14 7 0
Bogdan Bogdanovic 23 12 3 1
Clint Capela S 21 10 11 0
Jalen Johnson 24 8 11 2
AJ Griffin 12 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dejounte Murray · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Dejounte Murray makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trae Young assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Dejounte Murray ATL
13%
2 Trae Young ATL
12%
3 De'Andre Hunter ATL
12%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
5 Kyle Kuzma WSH
10%
6 Clint Capela ATL
10%
7 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
9 Jalen Johnson ATL
7%
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
27%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
32%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH 22.1 5.9 2.9
2 Trae Young ATL 21.8 3.0 9.0
3 Jordan Poole WSH 19.8 3.6 3.6
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 18.0 4.7 4.7
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL 15.7 5.0 1.9
6 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.4 6.1 1.7
7 Jalen Johnson ATL 12.9 5.9 3.0
8 Tyus Jones WSH 12.2 3.7 5.2
9 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 11.6 5.4 1.8
10 Corey Kispert WSH 11.2 2.9 1.8
11 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 10.3 3.1 3.8
12 Deni Avdija WSH 10.1 5.8 2.2
13 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 9.5 3.5 0.9
14 Clint Capela ATL 9.2 9.1 1.1
15 Johnny Davis WSH 9.1 4.6 1.7
16 Danilo Gallinari WSH 7.8 2.4 1.2
17 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 6.6 3.9 1.5
18 Delon Wright WSH 6.1 2.7 3.7
19 AJ Griffin ATL 6.1 1.8 1.1
20 Kobe Bufkin ATL 5.9 2.1 1.4
21 Ryan Rollins WSH 5.3 2.3 1.5
22 Trent Forrest ATL 5.2 1.8 2.4
23 Bruno Fernando ATL 4.9 3.3 1.3
24 Mike Muscala WSH 4.6 3.1 0.8
25 Mouhamed Gueye ATL 4.4 2.1 1.0
26 Jared Butler WSH 3.9 1.7 1.6
27 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.9 1.2 0.6
28 Patty Mills ATL 1.6 0.6 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.