NBA games

MIL @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
111–130
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL18263532111
TOR31352935130

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (TOR) / 8 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home TOR
33% 67%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Malik Beasley S 25 20 2 0
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 28 16 4 2
Damian Lillard S 31 15 2 6
Khris Middleton S 17 11 3 0
Bobby Portis 19 10 6 1
Jae Crowder 25 9 1 3
MarJon Beauchamp 16 8 2 0
Brook Lopez S 17 6 3 0
Chris Livingston 6 5 0 1
Cameron Payne 19 4 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Pascal Siakam S 33 26 6 7
Dennis Schroder S 29 24 4 11
Scottie Barnes S 29 21 12 5
OG Anunoby S 25 16 2 3
Jakob Poeltl S 29 14 11 2
Gary Trent Jr. 23 8 3 1
Chris Boucher 13 6 5 1
Otto Porter Jr. 16 6 3 1
Gradey Dick 21 5 1 0
Malachi Flynn 19 2 3 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:18 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dennis Schroder assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
14%
2 Pascal Siakam TOR
13%
3 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
4 Scottie Barnes TOR
12%
5 OG Anunoby TOR
10%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
7 Dennis Schroder TOR
9%
8 Brook Lopez MIL
8%
9 Malik Beasley MIL
6%
10 Khris Middleton MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
13%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
26%
Layup
50%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 24.4 10.2 3.2
2 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.9 8.6 4.6
3 Damian Lillard MIL 20.6 4.4 3.9
4 Pascal Siakam TOR 18.5 6.8 3.8
5 Dennis Schroder TOR 13.2 3.2 7.0
6 OG Anunoby TOR 13.0 3.6 2.2
7 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 12.1 2.9 2.1
8 Malik Beasley MIL 11.3 3.1 2.0
9 Brook Lopez MIL 10.5 4.0 1.3
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 9.1 8.1 1.6
11 Bobby Portis MIL 9.0 6.4 1.7
12 Jae Crowder MIL 8.6 4.3 1.8
13 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 8.6 3.5 1.4
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.7 4.3 1.9
15 Chris Boucher TOR 6.6 5.0 0.8
16 Malachi Flynn TOR 6.1 2.5 2.2
17 Gradey Dick TOR 6.0 2.2 1.0
18 Khris Middleton MIL 5.9 2.0 4.0
19 Cameron Payne MIL 5.5 1.3 1.8
20 Jalen McDaniels TOR 5.0 2.9 1.1
21 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 4.9 2.4 0.7
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.9 3.5 1.4
23 AJ Green MIL 4.7 1.5 0.9
24 Thaddeus Young TOR 4.3 2.9 0.9
25 Robin Lopez MIL 3.5 2.3 1.0
26 Chris Livingston MIL 3.2 1.1 0.3
27 Garrett Temple TOR 1.6 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.