NBA games

POR @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
110–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR26213627110
DET32272517101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (DET) / 8 (POR) games this season
POR away
home DET
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shaedon Sharpe S 42 29 7 5
Jerami Grant S 38 24 1 0
Deandre Ayton S 34 16 11 1
Malcolm Brogdon 25 14 6 6
Scoot Henderson S 20 11 0 7
Toumani Camara 26 7 7 0
Robert Williams III 19 6 8 1
Skylar Mays 8 2 1 2
Jabari Walker 10 1 2 0
Matisse Thybulle S 17 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 37 30 5 4
Ausar Thompson S 30 16 7 2
Isaiah Stewart S 33 12 6 4
Joe Harris 17 11 2 1
Marvin Bagley III S 33 10 6 3
Jaden Ivey 22 10 2 2
Marcus Sasser 23 8 3 6
James Wiseman 6 4 2 1
Stanley Umude 12 0 2 0
Killian Hayes S 26 0 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:51 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Scoot Henderson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
2 Jerami Grant POR
13%
3 Scoot Henderson POR
12%
4 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
5 Isaiah Stewart DET
11%
6 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
7 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
8 Killian Hayes DET
9%
9 Matisse Thybulle POR
8%
10 Malcolm Brogdon POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
51%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 21.6 4.1 7.1
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 17.6 5.1 2.9
3 Malcolm Brogdon POR 16.7 4.2 3.4
4 Jerami Grant POR 16.1 4.1 1.6
5 Isaiah Stewart DET 13.7 6.8 1.7
6 Jaden Ivey DET 13.5 3.6 3.5
7 Scoot Henderson POR 13.0 3.0 4.9
8 Ausar Thompson DET 12.1 10.0 3.5
9 Killian Hayes DET 11.6 2.5 4.0
10 Marvin Bagley III DET 10.3 5.8 1.3
11 Alec Burks DET 10.0 3.1 1.8
12 Deandre Ayton POR 9.3 10.4 1.7
13 Robert Williams III POR 8.3 6.2 1.4
14 Jabari Walker POR 7.8 5.1 0.9
15 Marcus Sasser DET 7.1 2.4 2.3
16 Toumani Camara POR 6.3 3.5 1.5
17 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.6 1.7 0.8
18 Stanley Umude DET 5.5 2.2 1.0
19 Skylar Mays POR 5.4 1.3 2.3
20 James Wiseman DET 5.3 4.1 0.8
21 Kris Murray POR 4.5 2.5 0.9
22 Joe Harris DET 4.3 1.3 0.8
23 Jared Rhoden DET 4.1 2.4 0.9
24 Moses Brown POR 3.0 3.1 0.3
25 Rayan Rupert POR 2.6 1.4 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.