NBA games

ORL @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
102–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL18322131102
LAC13344130118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (LAC) / 7 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home LAC
48% 52%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 32 15 4 4
Franz Wagner S 32 14 8 3
Moritz Wagner 14 13 1 1
Markelle Fultz S 32 12 5 1
Jalen Suggs S 32 11 6 3
Cole Anthony 18 10 2 1
Gary Harris 18 9 2 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 30 7 8 3
Caleb Houstan 4 6 0 0
Jett Howard 4 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 33 27 7 7
Russell Westbrook S 33 18 6 7
Norman Powell 29 17 3 3
Bones Hyland S 32 17 0 3
Mason Plumlee 22 10 7 2
Ivica Zubac S 23 9 9 1
Kawhi Leonard S 33 8 8 3
Kobe Brown 19 7 3 1
Jordan Miller 3 3 0 0
Moussa Diabate 3 2 1 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kawhi Leonard · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:45 Q1
"Kawhi Leonard makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paul George LAC
14%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
13%
3 Ivica Zubac LAC
11%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
6 Markelle Fultz ORL
10%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
9 Russell Westbrook LAC
8%
10 P.J. Tucker LAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
15%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
40%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paul George LAC 20.2 4.3 3.5
2 Franz Wagner ORL 18.3 4.7 3.0
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 17.7 4.0 3.5
4 Bones Hyland LAC 17.1 3.6 3.2
5 Cole Anthony ORL 12.4 4.1 2.7
6 Paolo Banchero ORL 10.8 4.8 3.7
7 Russell Westbrook LAC 10.5 6.1 5.4
8 Markelle Fultz ORL 10.3 3.9 4.3
9 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.0 6.7 1.9
10 Norman Powell LAC 9.6 2.3 1.3
11 Moritz Wagner ORL 8.6 3.5 0.9
12 Ivica Zubac LAC 8.6 6.4 0.7
13 Jalen Suggs ORL 8.5 4.3 1.5
14 Gary Harris ORL 7.5 2.7 1.4
15 Kobe Brown LAC 5.1 2.5 0.9
16 Jett Howard ORL 5.0 1.2 0.6
17 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.9 2.1 0.6
18 Mason Plumlee LAC 4.8 4.4 1.2
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 4.7 3.0 0.9
20 Amir Coffey LAC 4.5 1.6 1.2
21 Joe Ingles ORL 3.9 2.1 1.8
22 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.9 3.7 0.9
23 Moussa Diabate LAC 3.8 3.6 0.5
24 Filip Petrusev LAC 3.7 2.5 1.0
25 Anthony Black ORL 3.4 2.5 1.0
26 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.4 1.8 0.7
27 Jordan Miller LAC 1.7 0.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.