NBA games

SA @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
115–114
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA18273733115
PHX27363219114

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (PHX) / 8 (SA) games this season
SA away
home PHX
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Keldon Johnson S 33 27 3 4
Devin Vassell S 36 18 6 5
Victor Wembanyama S 28 18 8 1
Zach Collins S 27 14 5 4
Tre Jones 24 10 2 3
Cedi Osman 19 9 2 1
Jeremy Sochan S 30 8 7 5
Doug McDermott 15 6 1 1
Malaki Branham 9 3 0 0
Charles Bassey 15 2 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 26 2 7
Eric Gordon S 36 20 2 6
Grayson Allen S 37 19 7 3
Jusuf Nurkic S 30 12 12 4
Josh Okogie S 30 11 2 2
Yuta Watanabe 19 11 3 2
Nassir Little 18 6 2 1
Jordan Goodwin 15 6 4 0
Drew Eubanks 17 3 9 4

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Eric Gordon · Layup (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Eric Gordon makes 2-foot layup (Jusuf Nurkic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Victor Wembanyama SA
13%
2 Kevin Durant PHX
13%
3 Eric Gordon PHX
11%
4 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
5 Zach Collins SA
10%
6 Devin Vassell SA
9%
7 Keldon Johnson SA
9%
8 Jeremy Sochan SA
9%
9 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
10 Josh Okogie PHX
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
20%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
9%
Jumper
41%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 24.1 6.3 4.0
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 18.9 7.2 2.1
3 Devin Vassell SA 16.9 3.2 2.4
4 Zach Collins SA 15.1 6.3 5.0
5 Keldon Johnson SA 13.3 5.6 3.5
6 Eric Gordon PHX 12.1 2.9 2.1
7 Grayson Allen PHX 11.6 3.7 3.6
8 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.5 5.8 3.6
9 Josh Okogie PHX 10.1 4.4 1.8
10 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 9.6 7.6 3.2
11 Tre Jones SA 9.3 3.0 5.2
12 Saben Lee PHX 9.2 2.7 3.2
13 Malaki Branham SA 9.1 2.5 1.8
14 Cedi Osman SA 9.0 2.9 1.7
15 Jordan Goodwin PHX 8.3 4.6 2.6
16 Yuta Watanabe PHX 7.7 3.0 1.0
17 Drew Eubanks PHX 6.6 6.3 2.1
18 Chimezie Metu PHX 6.2 2.9 1.1
19 Nassir Little PHX 5.7 2.4 1.0
20 Doug McDermott SA 5.4 1.6 0.9
21 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 5.4 3.0 1.0
22 Blake Wesley SA 5.2 1.9 2.6
23 Julian Champagnie SA 5.1 3.4 0.9
24 Charles Bassey SA 5.1 5.1 1.3
25 Dominick Barlow SA 4.1 1.6 0.7
26 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 4.0 1.6 0.6
27 Bol Bol PHX 3.8 2.3 0.8
28 Devonte' Graham SA 3.6 1.6 0.5
29 Udoka Azubuike PHX 3.0 3.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.