NBA games

ORL @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
103106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL24342223103
LAL29252725106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (LAL) / 6 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home LAL
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gary Harris 21 17 3 3
Franz Wagner S 37 16 8 4
Jalen Suggs S 26 15 8 2
Markelle Fultz S 33 14 4 8
Cole Anthony 21 12 3 2
Wendell Carter Jr. S 35 10 8 1
Paolo Banchero S 30 9 5 5
Moritz Wagner 11 5 1 0
Jonathan Isaac 11 3 3 0
Joe Ingles 12 2 1 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 36 28 2 8
Anthony Davis S 38 26 19 5
LeBron James S 33 19 3 4
Austin Reaves S 31 11 3 3
Christian Wood 27 9 9 3
Gabe Vincent 25 9 0 2
Taurean Prince S 26 4 0 1
Jaxson Hayes 10 0 2 0
Cam Reddish 14 0 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jalen Suggs · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Jalen Suggs makes 27-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
13%
2 LeBron James LAL
12%
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL
11%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
5 Paolo Banchero ORL
11%
6 Markelle Fultz ORL
10%
7 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL
9%
8 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
9 Austin Reaves LAL
8%
10 Taurean Prince LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
21%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
25%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 21.0 7.2 6.0
2 Anthony Davis LAL 18.2 9.6 2.4
3 Franz Wagner ORL 18.1 4.3 3.0
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 15.4 3.6 5.8
5 Austin Reaves LAL 13.7 3.7 2.8
6 Cole Anthony ORL 12.9 4.6 3.1
7 Paolo Banchero ORL 10.9 5.1 3.5
8 Wendell Carter Jr. ORL 10.5 6.5 2.1
9 Moritz Wagner ORL 9.8 4.3 1.0
10 Markelle Fultz ORL 9.5 3.7 3.9
11 Gabe Vincent LAL 9.2 1.7 2.5
12 Taurean Prince LAL 8.6 2.5 1.1
13 Jalen Suggs ORL 8.0 3.8 1.5
14 Christian Wood LAL 7.5 5.2 1.0
15 Gary Harris ORL 6.3 2.8 1.2
16 Max Christie LAL 6.0 2.2 1.0
17 Jett Howard ORL 5.7 1.3 0.8
18 Caleb Houstan ORL 5.5 2.3 0.7
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.3 3.4 0.8
20 Cam Reddish LAL 5.0 2.5 0.9
21 Jaxson Hayes LAL 4.6 3.1 1.0
22 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.2 2.5 0.5
23 Joe Ingles ORL 3.9 2.1 1.7
24 Anthony Black ORL 3.9 2.6 1.2
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 3.3 0.7 0.9
26 Colin Castleton LAL 3.2 4.4 0.3
27 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.9 1.9 0.8
28 D'Moi Hodge LAL 2.8 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.