NBA games

UTAH @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
102–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH21242433102
DEN31272230110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (DEN) / 8 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home DEN
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lauri Markkanen S 38 27 14 5
Walker Kessler S 29 22 13 0
Talen Horton-Tucker S 30 16 3 8
John Collins S 34 15 9 1
Collin Sexton 17 12 0 0
Jordan Clarkson S 34 4 3 6
Kelly Olynyk 18 3 4 5
Keyonte George 20 3 1 2
Ochai Agbaji 15 0 2 2
Kris Dunn 6 0 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 35 27 10 11
Aaron Gordon S 33 21 7 2
Jamal Murray S 37 18 3 14
Christian Braun 30 9 8 2
Michael Porter Jr. S 19 8 1 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 33 8 3 0
Zeke Nnaji 13 6 3 0
Peyton Watson 15 5 2 0
Reggie Jackson 19 4 4 1
Julian Strawther 6 4 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jamal Murray · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:22 Q1
"Jamal Murray makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jamal Murray DEN
12%
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
3 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
5 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH
9%
6 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
9%
7 Walker Kessler UTAH
8%
8 John Collins UTAH
8%
9 DeAndre Jordan DEN
8%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
26%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
28%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 24.2 10.4 6.3
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 19.0 7.9 1.6
3 Jamal Murray DEN 18.4 2.8 6.0
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 15.0 9.1 2.2
5 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 12.8 3.3 3.7
6 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 11.8 3.3 4.3
7 Julian Strawther DEN 11.0 1.8 1.4
8 Collin Sexton UTAH 10.9 2.6 2.7
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.8 2.4 1.8
10 Aaron Gordon DEN 10.4 4.7 2.4
11 John Collins UTAH 10.2 6.3 1.2
12 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.9 2.1 2.5
13 Keyonte George UTAH 9.5 2.6 3.2
14 Peyton Watson DEN 8.7 3.2 1.3
15 Christian Braun DEN 8.5 4.5 3.0
16 Hunter Tyson DEN 7.8 3.6 1.4
17 Walker Kessler UTAH 7.1 6.2 1.0
18 Kris Dunn UTAH 6.9 2.2 2.6
19 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 6.7 4.2 2.8
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 6.7 3.6 1.1
21 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 5.9 2.6 0.8
22 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 5.3 2.2 1.0
23 Justin Holiday DEN 5.2 1.6 1.2
24 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.4 2.8 2.9
25 Collin Gillespie DEN 4.3 1.3 1.3
26 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.6 1.7 0.5
27 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.5 0.8 1.0
28 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.3 3.5 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.