NBA games

DET @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
112–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET21263233112
OKC33263233124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (OKC) / 7 (DET) games this season
DET away
home OKC
40% 60%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaden Ivey 19 20 2 3
Cade Cunningham S 35 17 2 5
Ausar Thompson S 31 15 10 3
Marvin Bagley III 24 13 4 1
Isaiah Stewart S 31 12 7 1
Alec Burks 21 11 2 7
Killian Hayes S 27 10 4 7
Jalen Duren S 23 8 7 1
Marcus Sasser 14 6 2 2
Joe Harris 10 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 33 32 9 4
Josh Giddey S 28 21 7 3
Jalen Williams S 31 19 7 6
Chet Holmgren S 24 14 4 3
Ousmane Dieng 18 10 1 2
Isaiah Joe 20 9 0 0
Luguentz Dort S 26 7 2 0
Davis Bertans 13 6 1 0
Cason Wallace 22 4 4 2
Olivier Sarr 21 2 9 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
13%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
4 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
5 Josh Giddey OKC
10%
6 Jalen Duren DET
10%
7 Isaiah Stewart DET
9%
8 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
9 Killian Hayes DET
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
33%
Layup
31%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 21.1 5.8 5.9
2 Cade Cunningham DET 20.1 4.2 6.9
3 Jalen Williams OKC 18.1 3.9 3.8
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 15.4 6.4 1.7
5 Jalen Duren DET 14.8 10.4 2.7
6 Isaiah Stewart DET 13.7 6.9 1.7
7 Josh Giddey OKC 12.7 5.1 5.0
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 12.5 3.9 1.4
9 Jaden Ivey DET 12.2 3.4 3.5
10 Ausar Thompson DET 11.3 9.8 3.5
11 Killian Hayes DET 11.1 2.5 3.6
12 Alec Burks DET 10.2 3.2 1.3
13 Marvin Bagley III DET 10.1 6.0 1.2
14 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.2 2.4 1.3
15 Cason Wallace OKC 7.9 2.8 1.4
16 Marcus Sasser DET 7.3 2.5 2.4
17 Ousmane Dieng OKC 7.3 3.5 2.0
18 Stanley Umude DET 6.7 2.5 1.3
19 Tre Mann OKC 6.2 2.7 1.5
20 Vasilije Micic OKC 6.0 1.7 4.3
21 James Wiseman DET 5.5 4.1 0.8
22 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.1 2.3 0.6
23 Davis Bertans OKC 4.9 0.7 0.5
24 Joe Harris DET 4.6 1.3 0.9
25 Jared Rhoden DET 4.4 2.2 1.0
26 Olivier Sarr OKC 4.3 3.3 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.