NBA games

GS @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
130–102
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS29303932130
NO27302124102

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 6 (NO) / 8 (GS) games this season
GS away
home NO
75% 25%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 30 42 5 5
Trayce Jackson-Davis 20 13 9 0
Moses Moody S 21 13 3 4
Chris Paul 25 13 6 5
Gary Payton II 20 10 4 1
Andrew Wiggins S 20 9 3 0
Kevon Looney S 25 8 7 1
Draymond Green S 22 6 6 7
Dario Saric 21 6 10 2
Brandin Podziemski 23 5 8 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
CJ McCollum S 33 19 6 5
Zion Williamson S 30 19 5 3
Jordan Hawkins S 35 14 5 2
Matt Ryan 27 12 2 2
Kira Lewis Jr. 16 11 1 2
Jonas Valanciunas S 23 11 6 3
Dyson Daniels 24 7 4 3
Larry Nance Jr. 17 5 5 2
Herbert Jones S 22 4 2 1
Cody Zeller 5 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Stephen Curry · Layup (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Stephen Curry makes 3-foot layup (Draymond Green assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Stephen Curry GS
24%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
16%
3 Zion Williamson NO
14%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
10%
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO
9%
6 CJ McCollum NO
9%
7 Herbert Jones NO
8%
8 Kevon Looney GS
8%
9 Moses Moody GS
0%
10 Dario Saric GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
20%
Layup
62%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.4 4.6 4.0
2 Brandon Ingram NO 19.2 5.8 4.1
3 Zion Williamson NO 17.8 5.5 3.7
4 CJ McCollum NO 15.9 3.6 4.3
5 Andrew Wiggins GS 11.5 3.2 1.5
6 Chris Paul GS 11.0 3.9 6.9
7 Moses Moody GS 10.3 3.7 1.3
8 Herbert Jones NO 9.1 4.1 1.5
9 Dario Saric GS 8.9 4.4 2.1
10 Jonas Valanciunas NO 8.8 7.0 1.5
11 Jordan Hawkins NO 8.3 2.3 1.6
12 Dyson Daniels NO 8.2 4.4 2.1
13 Brandin Podziemski GS 7.4 5.0 4.9
14 Kevon Looney GS 6.7 8.3 1.8
15 Gary Payton II GS 6.2 2.5 1.2
16 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 6.1 1.7 1.4
17 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.4 4.5 0.7
18 Matt Ryan NO 5.4 2.2 1.6
19 Jerome Robinson GS 4.1 2.0 1.2
20 E.J. Liddell NO 4.1 2.8 0.9
21 Lester Quinones GS 4.0 1.7 1.5
22 Cory Joseph GS 3.7 1.9 2.3
23 Kaiser Gates NO 3.1 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.