MIA @ MIL
NBA
Fiserv Forum
·Final
114–122
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 28 | 24 | 21 | 41 | 114 |
| MIL | 28 | 34 | 35 | 25 | 122 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 7 (MIL) / 8 (MIA) games this season
MIA
away
home
MIL
34%
66%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Herro S | 42 | 35 | 8 | 3 |
| Duncan Robinson | 22 | 15 | 1 | 1 |
| Jimmy Butler III S | 29 | 13 | 4 | 4 |
| Orlando Robinson | 26 | 11 | 7 | 7 |
| Thomas Bryant S | 22 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| Jaime Jaquez Jr. | 23 | 8 | 2 | 3 |
| Kyle Lowry S | 28 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Josh Richardson | 23 | 6 | 3 | 2 |
| Nikola Jovic | 7 | 5 | 4 | 0 |
| Kevin Love S | 18 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Thomas Bryant ·
Dunk (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Thomas Bryant makes 4-foot dunk (Tyler Herro assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Giannis Antetokounmpo
MIL
15%
2
Tyler Herro
MIA
14%
3
Damian Lillard
MIL
13%
4
Kevin Love
MIA
9%
5
Brook Lopez
MIL
9%
6
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
MIA
9%
7
Jae Crowder
MIL
8%
8
Nikola Jovic
MIA
8%
9
Malik Beasley
MIL
7%
10
Kyle Lowry
MIA
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
26%
Layup
36%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | MIL | 24.8 | 11.3 | 3.2 |
| 2 | Tyler Herro | MIA | 23.8 | 4.2 | 4.8 |
| 3 | Damian Lillard | MIL | 18.7 | 4.3 | 4.0 |
| 4 | Malik Beasley | MIL | 11.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| 5 | Brook Lopez | MIL | 10.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 |
| 6 | Duncan Robinson | MIA | 9.7 | 2.8 | 1.9 |
| 7 | Jae Crowder | MIL | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.9 |
| 8 | Bobby Portis | MIL | 8.9 | 6.0 | 1.9 |
| 9 | Jamal Cain | MIA | 8.7 | 6.0 | 0.9 |
| 10 | Kyle Lowry | MIA | 8.0 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
| 11 | Pat Connaughton | MIL | 8.0 | 4.3 | 2.0 |
| 12 | Nikola Jovic | MIA | 7.5 | 4.7 | 1.9 |
| 13 | Thomas Bryant | MIA | 7.2 | 4.8 | 1.2 |
| 14 | Dru Smith | MIA | 7.2 | 2.2 | 4.1 |
| 15 | Kevin Love | MIA | 6.8 | 6.2 | 1.5 |
| 16 | AJ Green | MIL | 6.7 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| 17 | Jaime Jaquez Jr. | MIA | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.8 |
| 18 | R.J. Hampton | MIA | 6.0 | 2.0 | 2.4 |
| 19 | Andre Jackson Jr. | MIL | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 20 | Thanasis Antetokounmpo | MIL | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| 21 | Orlando Robinson | MIA | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 |
| 22 | Cameron Payne | MIL | 5.7 | 1.4 | 2.3 |
| 23 | Robin Lopez | MIL | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 24 | Chris Livingston | MIL | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.