NBA games

DAL @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
125–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL30373028125
MEM36252524110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 8 (MEM) / 6 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home MEM
55% 45%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 40 35 12 12
Derrick Jones Jr. S 27 22 4 0
Tim Hardaway Jr. 29 21 5 0
Grant Williams S 31 15 3 2
Josh Green S 34 12 2 3
Maxi Kleber 22 7 5 2
Jaden Hardy 10 6 0 1
Seth Curry 15 3 2 2
Dereck Lively II S 14 2 6 0
Dante Exum 6 2 4 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 34 30 9 4
Desmond Bane S 37 30 6 3
Marcus Smart S 35 23 5 9
David Roddy 29 9 5 2
Ziaire Williams S 33 8 7 2
Xavier Tillman S 29 6 7 1
John Konchar 19 3 4 1
Derrick Rose 14 1 1 0
Jacob Gilyard 1 0 0 0
Vince Williams Jr. 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Free Throw (1 pts) · 11:03 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes free throw 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
15%
2 Marcus Smart MEM
14%
3 Desmond Bane MEM
13%
4 Ziaire Williams MEM
11%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
10%
6 Xavier Tillman MEM
10%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
8 Grant Williams DAL
9%
9 Luka Doncic DAL
8%
10 Josh Green DAL
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
26%
Jumper
20%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 26.4 7.6 6.3
2 Desmond Bane MEM 24.7 4.7 5.0
3 Marcus Smart MEM 17.4 3.2 5.8
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 16.2 6.5 2.5
5 Jaden Hardy DAL 14.9 3.7 2.6
6 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 14.8 4.0 2.2
7 Ziaire Williams MEM 12.7 5.2 2.0
8 Xavier Tillman MEM 10.9 7.4 2.2
9 Josh Green DAL 10.5 3.2 1.9
10 David Roddy MEM 10.5 4.6 2.2
11 Derrick Rose MEM 9.3 2.5 4.1
12 Grant Williams DAL 8.9 5.3 1.9
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.4 6.0 1.1
14 Jake LaRavia MEM 8.4 3.7 1.4
15 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 8.2 2.9 1.8
16 John Konchar MEM 6.6 5.7 1.5
17 Dwight Powell DAL 6.2 2.9 0.8
18 Dante Exum DAL 6.1 2.5 3.1
19 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 5.4 2.1 0.8
20 GG Jackson MEM 4.7 1.1 0.5
21 Maxi Kleber DAL 4.4 3.3 0.9
22 Jacob Gilyard MEM 4.4 2.2 4.3
23 Seth Curry DAL 4.2 1.5 0.7
24 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.9 2.1 0.4
25 Richaun Holmes DAL 1.5 2.3 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.