NBA games

POR @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
99–91
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2126331999
TOR2525241791

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 7 (TOR) / 7 (POR) games this season
POR away
home TOR
36% 64%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 37 22 6 0
Malcolm Brogdon 29 21 3 5
Shaedon Sharpe S 38 14 5 3
Scoot Henderson S 34 11 4 7
Deandre Ayton S 32 10 23 2
Matisse Thybulle S 19 9 0 2
Skylar Mays 11 5 0 1
Jabari Walker 16 4 3 0
Toumani Camara 23 3 7 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Scottie Barnes S 37 20 12 2
Pascal Siakam S 35 20 6 3
Jakob Poeltl S 28 14 10 1
OG Anunoby S 30 10 3 1
Dennis Schroder S 32 10 1 8
Malachi Flynn 15 6 1 0
Gradey Dick 21 4 6 0
Chris Boucher 17 4 7 1
Gary Trent Jr. 19 3 1 2
Jalen McDaniels 5 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes 6-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jerami Grant POR
13%
2 Pascal Siakam TOR
11%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR
9%
5 Deandre Ayton POR
9%
6 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
7 Scoot Henderson POR
9%
8 Dennis Schroder TOR
8%
9 OG Anunoby TOR
7%
10 Gary Trent Jr. TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
11%
Free Throw
7%
Jumper
37%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Scottie Barnes TOR 23.5 8.1 5.1
2 Pascal Siakam TOR 18.3 6.7 3.9
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 17.2 5.3 2.9
4 Malcolm Brogdon POR 14.9 4.4 2.9
5 Jerami Grant POR 14.1 4.1 1.7
6 Dennis Schroder TOR 13.4 3.3 6.9
7 OG Anunoby TOR 13.3 3.5 2.3
8 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 13.3 3.1 2.1
9 Scoot Henderson POR 13.2 3.0 4.7
10 Deandre Ayton POR 9.0 9.8 1.7
11 Jabari Walker POR 7.8 5.3 0.9
12 Jakob Poeltl TOR 7.5 7.5 1.6
13 Chris Boucher TOR 6.9 4.8 0.8
14 Toumani Camara POR 6.4 3.1 1.5
15 Malachi Flynn TOR 6.2 2.6 2.6
16 Gradey Dick TOR 5.9 1.7 1.1
17 Skylar Mays POR 5.5 1.5 2.5
18 Jalen McDaniels TOR 5.3 3.0 1.1
19 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.2 1.9 0.8
20 Kris Murray POR 4.5 2.7 0.9
21 Thaddeus Young TOR 4.4 2.9 0.9
22 Moses Brown POR 2.6 3.2 0.3
23 Rayan Rupert POR 2.6 1.6 0.6
24 Garrett Temple TOR 1.9 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.